Following the fall of the Ottoman Empire in the early 20th century, England and France carved up the Middle East, which had been ruled by the Ottomans for 500 years. The two colonial powers created artificial states with no historical borders or peoples with a common history or vision for the future. Modern Syria is one such creation of the Sykes-Picot Agreement of 1916.
While obvious to anyone paying attention, Syria has been a failed state for years. A civil war has raged in Syria since 2011. The regime of Bashar Assad has not exercised control over the entire country since its outbreak.
ISIS has a significant presence in eastern Syria. As a result, Assad exercised little or no control in Syria east of the Euphrates River since 2012. Indeed, it has been American forces, fighting alongside the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, who have led the fight against ISIS in Syria since 2015. I am proud to say that my son was a member of those special forces in 2018-2019, who stood and fought with our Kurdish allies.
For almost a decade, Assad has ruled over only a rump portion of Syria. Even then, he could only exercise sovereignty over that part of the country with the assistance of Russia and Iran and its terror network. They provided the necessary military and economic support for Assad to brutally subjugate the Syrian people, which included his use of chemical weapons.
In exchange for propping him up, Assad gave Russia military bases in Syria and allowed Iran to funnel weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon, which they used to attack Israel.
To the extent any doubts remained about the viability of Syria, the toppling of Assad this weekend by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a Turkish-supported Al-Qaeda offshoot, should put those doubts to rest.
Assad fled to Moscow unencumbered by an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court.
Western Syria is now ruled by HTS and its leader, Abu Mohammad al-Julani. Notwithstanding the $10 million bounty put on his head by the United States for his prior terror activities, Julani claims he and his group are misunderstood moderates who promise to govern Syria as responsible members of the international community. That remains to be seen.
No doubt, this is an enormous defeat, not just for Assad but for his Russian and Iranian patrons as well. In contrast, it is a huge win for the United States and Israel precisely because it is a setback for Russian President Vladimir Putin, the ayatollah and Assad. It is also a big win for Turkey, whose ally now controls Damascus.
However, because his reputation as a terrorist precedes him, many nations, including the United States and Israel, must immediately take steps to advance their national security interests with little or no concern for the territorial integrity of Syria.
That has already begun. The United States and Israel have been attacking Assad’s chemical weapon facilities, military bases, weapons caches and air-defense radars to ensure they do not fall into the hands of terrorists. If HTS is going to rule Syria, they are going to have to do it with a defanged and gutted military.
Israel has also taken control of a buffer zone in the Golan Heights on the Syrian side of the border to ensure that no terrorists can launch attacks from Syria into Israel. Just another Israeli win over the forces of evil in the region.
The great irony is that only a week ago, just days before Assad fled the country, the United Nations voted by a count of 97 in favor, eight against and 64 abstentions to demand that Israel return all of the Golan Heights to the Assad regime. The resolution was insane and cynical then. It is utterly delusional today. Israel is never giving it back, and the demands that they do so are the ravings of lunatics.
While these are all positive steps taken by the United States and our Israeli allies, there is much more to do.
Perhaps, most importantly, is to attack the Islamic Republic’s nuclear facilities immediately. Iran is weak if not fatally wounded. The regime, like any wounded animal, is desperate to survive. No doubt, it has learned from its ally, North Korea, that a nuclear weapon can be a guarantor of a regime’s survival.
American intelligence indicates Iran is sprinting towards developing a nuclear weapon. The United States, hopefully along with Israel and our Sunni Arab allies at our side, must destroy Iran’s nuclear program before they successfully obtain a nuclear weapon. The world cannot afford to wake up one morning to an Iranian bomb. The ayatollah is flat on his back. We cannot let him up.
The first Trump administration recognized Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights. Inexplicably, the Biden administration not only reversed that decision but imposed a boycott, divest and sanction policy on Israeli companies in the Golan. The incoming Trump administration should not only reaffirm its earlier decision but extend recognition to Israeli sovereignty over that portion of the Golan Heights Israel captured in the wake of Assad’s departure to prevent it from falling into the hands of a terrorist organization. The United Nations be damned.
With its lifeline from Iran severed, Hezbollah is vulnerable in Lebanon. The international community should work to strengthen communities in Lebanon, like Maronite Christians, who are prepared to fight for their country and to rid themselves of the malign influence of Iran and Hezbollah. If Hezbollah is to be disarmed, now is the time, and it is up to the Lebanese people, with worldwide support, to do it.
The United States should always be looking to empower our allies. The Kurds have proven themselves worthy of our support. Moreover, they are a people who have earned a nation of their own. We should not stand in their way.
Needless to say, this will provoke Turkey, which views the Kurds as a threat. Therefore, it may not be possible for an independent Kurdistan to be established in eastern Syria. But they, and the Turks, must know that we will not abandon the Kurds.
Assad’s demise is a time of great uncertainty and danger. It is also a time of great opportunities. We must seize them and not be bound by a 100-year-old whim.