The reaction of the protest movement and its deep-state champions to the appointment of Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir to head the Israel Defense Forces was predictable. Anyone approved by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to replace Herzi Halevi was bound to be discredited as a politically motivated pick, regardless of his illustrious professional credentials.
It’s part of the knee-jerk campaign against the government in general and Netanyahu in particular that keeps the left-wing punditocracy—as well as a slew of former security officials—in business. Not just figuratively. Unfortunately, the horrors of Oct. 7, 2023, didn’t serve to slow the wheels of the disinformation machine. Quite the opposite.
Still, though not surprising, the attitude toward Zamir is cause for alarm where the bigger picture is concerned. Rather than embracing the new IDF chief’s stated mission—to review the thus-far insufficient investigation into the series of incomprehensible blunders on that deadly day, and serve as the country’s proverbial attack dog against any enemy who rises up to against it—the nay-sayers have been casting aspersions on his every syllable.
Given the magnitude of Israel’s failure to anticipate and prevent Hamas’s bloody massacre more than 17 months ago, Zamir’s approach should be welcomed, if not embraced, across the societal spectrum. But the chattering-class choir is refusing to change its tune.
Which brings us to what has come to be called the conceptzia. The Hebrew bastardization of “conception” is best translated as “confirmation bias.”
The psychological phenomenon has been noted by various sources throughout history. Among these was English philosopher and scientist Francis Bacon.
“The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion,” he wrote in 1620, “draws all things else to support and agree with it. And though there be a greater number and weight of instances to be found on the other side, yet these it either neglects or despises, or else by some distinction sets aside or rejects.”
It’s a perfect description of the Israeli blind spot that enabled Hamas to plan and execute the worst atrocities against Jews since the Holocaust. In the sovereign Jewish state, no less, with an army that’s admired far and wide.
Grasping this sad fact is necessary for rectifying it. Alas, doing so isn’t sufficient.
A comprehensive interview this weekend in the N12 Magazine with Ofer Grosbard, former head of the Research Division of the IDF Intelligence Directorate (Aman), is enlightening. A psychologist with a Ph.D. in conflict analysis and resolution from George Mason University in Virginia, Grosbard—author of several books and articles on the difference in thinking between the Western and Muslim world—assumed the role in August 2021.
Six months later, he was fired for daring to voice assessments that countered the conceptzia. That’s not how anybody labeled the conventional wisdom of Aman, of course. But it was on full, arrogant display.
Ironically, then, the very expertise for which he was hired in the wake of "Operation Guardian of the Walls" against Hamas—"to provide an original perspective on the enemy’s mindset”—would get him sacked.
“Aman’s structure, like the entire military, is hierarchical in a way that restricts open, critical and creative thinking,” he told N12. “Commanders want to move up the ranks, so they don’t allow themselves to express their opinions freely. These elements are especially critical in intelligence, which is supposed to be the brain of the army and the state.”
A prime example he offered was the intelligence community’s perception of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.
"I met people who had been closely monitoring Sinwar’s behavior for years and knew him in great detail," he recounted. "I asked them to express their feelings toward him. Some said they respected him; one felt sorry for him; another saw him as a warm father figure. Another admitted to harboring hatred for him."
Grosbard realized that their recommendations, though framed rationally, were heavily influenced by emotions: Those who viewed Sinwar as a “father figure” were less inclined to want to target him for assassination, and those who hated him tended to support his elimination.
"They bring in a few clinical psychologists and tell them, ‘Write a report on Sinwar.’ From their perspective, Sinwar is basically ‘Ashkenazi,’ said Grosbard. “They come from their clinics, build a profile and conclude that he’s a psychopath. But you can’t label an entire culture as psychopathic. Even in the DSM [the the American Psychiatric Association's "Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders"], our diagnostic manual, it’s clear that deviant behaviors can only be considered pathological if they occur in a certain percentage of the population—not all Gaza residents or all Nukhba terrorists."
He continued: "It’s a great way to avoid trying to understand how the other side thinks. When you define [Sinwar] as a psychopath, you absolve yourself from the need to understand him. But if you say he has messianic thinking, combined with a proven ability to execute his plans over the years, and that he means every word he says, that’s an entirely different matter."
He also recalled a conversation with the assistant to the director of Aman, at the time Aharon Haliva, who resigned last year in well-deserved disgrace. Haliva’s deputy, he said, “rejected any possibility of generalizing about cultures and said it was all nonsense—that we all think in the same way.”
Grosbard went on to extend his critique to the State of Israel as a whole.
"Without emotional inquiry, we are on the path to destruction," he stressed. "We are talking about two sources of mistakes. One is the failure to understand the enemy’s thought process, and the other is our own repression, the repression of an entire nation."
He expounded, “There is something incredibly powerful about collective repression. The human tendency is to suppress dangers, especially when they are present over time. We are not built for prolonged states of anxiety that require high levels of adrenaline over extended periods. Eventually, we all get tired; we want peace; and we repress the danger. There were those who said, 'Hamas is deterred,' even though it kept firing from time to time. There were those who said, 'The IDF is strong,' all the time. But there were also those who said, 'I need to buy milk now; don’t confuse me.' I think most people were caught up in their daily routine.”
This, he added, is not only characteristic of Israel.
"The West is so narcissistic in its cultural perception that it is hard for it to understand that someone is lying to it,” he asserted. “In the modern West, truth is sacred and science is God. … There are fundamental differences between us and the enemy. We surpass them in analytical ability, and they surpass us in social skills.
"This is a process that has developed over the last 500 years in the West. Humans separated from the group, became individuals, and began making calculations within themselves. The manipulative ability and social skills needed to function within a group made way for personal analytical thinking, and this created a huge cultural gap. In the realm of social manipulation, [our enemies] have a significant advantage."
Let’s hope that Eyal Zamir is able to overcome that gap.
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'Topics': 'hostages,hamas,gaza-strip,torture,blind',
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