Opinion

Israel Hayom

The storm before the storm

Iran, we must remember, is the only one that stands ‎to gain from a conflagration in Gaza, as it would ‎divert everyone’s attention from what it is doing in ‎Syria and what it is trying to do in the region.‎

Smoke rises from a location reportedly belonging to Hamas after an Israeli airstrike in the southern Gaza town of Rafah on July 14, 2018. Photo by Abed Rahim Khatib/Flash90.
Smoke rises from a location reportedly belonging to Hamas after an Israeli airstrike in the southern Gaza town of Rafah on July 14, 2018. Photo by Abed Rahim Khatib/Flash90.
Eyal Zisser
Eyal Zisser is a lecturer in the Middle East History Department at Tel Aviv University.

It did not take long for Hamas and Islamic Jihad to ‎deny any involvement in Wednesday’s rocket fire on ‎Israel, and the two Gaza Strip-based groups rushed ‎to express their commitment to Egypt’s efforts to ‎broker a ceasefire between Israel and Gaza. ‎

Hamas could be lying—it wouldn’t be the first time—and its operatives may have been the one to fire ‎two Grad rockets at Beersheva and central Israel. At ‎the very least, Hamas probably encourage the rogue ‎groups in Gaza to fire on Israel. ‎

One must remember that while Hamas has no real ‎interest in provoking a full-fledged war with ‎Israel, it has every interest in improving its ‎position in the Egyptian-led mediation and maybe ‎even forcing Israel to accept a reality in which ‎sporadic rocket fire is a part of any future deal in ‎Gaza.‎

What is particularly troubling, however, is the ‎possibility that Hamas had nothing to do with ‎Wednesday’s rocket fire, and that the attack was ‎mounted contrary to its direct orders.‎

This would mean that Hamas has lost its notorious ‎iron grip on the situation on the ground in Gaza. ‎Moreover, it would mean that any deal Israel signs ‎with it may not be worth the paper it is written on, ‎as it will not guarantee any calm on the border. ‎

Achieving some form of quiet on the border is a ‎prominent Israeli interest, as it wants to focus its ‎attention on the northern sector, where efforts to ‎curtail Iran’s attempts to cement its presence in ‎Syria and curb Hezbollah are paramount.‎

Iran, we must remember, is the only one that stands ‎to gain from a conflagration in Gaza, as it would ‎divert everyone’s attention from what it is doing in ‎Syria and what it is trying to do in the region.‎

Reaching a ceasefire is also in Hamas’s interest, as ‎it would grant it legitimization and all but ‎guarantee that it will rule Gaza for many years to come. ‎This is why Israel must ensure that in return to any ‎concessions offered Hamas, it would be guaranteed ‎absolute calm on the border. ‎

Israel will most likely choose to contain ‎Wednesday’s incident both because it did not result ‎in fatalities and over Hamas’s denouncing it. ‎But this does not bode well for the efforts to ‎achieve a ceasefire, as one cannot survive if one ‎of the parties involved has no intention of meeting ‎it. ‎It is important that Israel not lose sight of this ‎when it comes to the Gaza Strip, but also when it ‎comes to Judea and Samaria. ‎

The Trump administration is gearing up to present ‎the “deal of the century” for the Israeli-‎Palestinian conflict, which would undoubtedly ‎require not only Israeli concessions, but also a ‎demand to contain and tolerate the Palestinian ‎Authority’s incompetent counter-terrorism efforts. ‎

Experience, however, has taught us that any deal ‎that does not guarantee security will not last.

Eyal Zisser is a lecturer in the Middle East History Department at Tel Aviv University.

The opinions and facts presented in this article are those of the author, and neither JNS nor its partners assume any responsibility for them.
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