If Washington and Jerusalem play their cards correctly, the Middle East can transform even more than it has with the fall of Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria and the decimation of Hamas and Hezbollah, former U.S. and Israeli diplomats told JNS on the sidelines of the Tikvah Fund’s Jewish Leadership Conference on Sunday.
“We don’t know what the Syrian government is going to look like, but we know what it’s not going to look like. It’s not going to look like Assad,” Michael Oren, a former Israeli ambassador to the United States, told JNS at the Manhattan event, during which he also delivered remarks. “Iran is now totally isolated. That also has its risks.”
Oren cautioned that Tehran, which “is already debating whether or not to break out and create a nuclear weapon,” may decide that it has a limited window in which to act before U.S. President-elect Donald Trump takes office on Jan. 20.
Trump exercised a “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran through heavy sanctions during his first term, which included the United States withdrawing from the Iranian nuclear deal in May 2018. His nominees for senior positions in his forthcoming administration suggest that he intends to remain tough on the Iranian regime.
“Israel has to be extremely vigilant during this period,” Oren said, of the coming weeks before Trump takes office. “But generally speaking, this is a transformative revolutionary event for the Middle East that, if it is handled correctly by the United States, by our allies, could truly, truly bring about a new Middle East.”
Oren advised in the interim giving “a cautious embrace to the new rebel government in Syria” and to “press the isolation of Iran, to get Iran to dismantle its nuclear program, perhaps even bring down the regime.”
He told JNS that he is not calling for regime change in Iran. “But none of us will be particularly distraught if it actually happened,” he said. Concerned parties should “take this moment to make a peace between Israel and Saudi Arabia, perhaps even to address the Palestinian problem in a new and creative way,” he said.
‘Poof, it’s gone’
Elliott Abrams, a former U.S. deputy national security advisor who served as special representative for Iran under Trump, cautioned against too much prognosticating, especially in a rapidly evolving region like the Middle East.
“The first thing we know is people can't predict,” the chairman of the Tikvah Fund told JNS. “Who predicted a month ago that Assad would be in exile for the rest of his life?” (Abrams interviewed former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and former presidential candidate Nikki Haley during a session at the Tikvah event.)
Abrams noted that Israel's weakening Hamas and Hezbollah led to Iran’s failure to answer Assad’s pleas for help and the walls closing in on his brutal dictatorship.
“He turned to the Iranians. Nothing. Hezbollah, nothing. Poof. It’s gone,” Abrams said. “Now, of course, we have to see what kind of regime does form in Syria, but the existential threat to Israel is Iran, and they’re weaker.”
JNS asked if now is the time to make a move against Iran. “I’m sure this will be a discussion first in Jerusalem in the cabinet, second between Netanyahu and Trump, and I’m sure the Israelis are thinking about that,” Abrams said.
Questions remain about Iran’s military capacity and what the Islamic Republic might do, if anything, if attacked.
“What is Trump’s attitude? What is he telling them?” Abrams said. “I think we’re going to find out in short order. But it’s got to occur to the Israelis, the iron is hot, do we strike now?”
![Elliott Abrams](https://cdn.jns.org/uploads/2024/12/TT_80244-4K-scaled.jpg)
Trump has suggested in recent months that he would be open to negotiating a new nuclear accord with the Iranian regime. Abrams thinks Tehran would be more open to such an entreaty, “because they’re scared.”
“They know they’ve lost Hamas. They know they’ve lost Hezbollah,” he said. “They know they are totally vulnerable to Israel.”
Abrams warned that Trump could fall into the same trap that ensnared the Biden administration—thinking Iran will negotiate in good faith while it buys time to advance its nuclear program.
“I frankly don’t think the Iranians are willing to do that, because the kind of changes that would be needed,” Abrams said. “Forget the proxies, forget the nuclear program. Then it’s not really the Islamic Republic of Iran anymore.”
“My guess,” he told JNS, “is they want to negotiate with Trump. They don’t want to achieve anything. They want to string it out. They want him to say to the Israelis, ‘Don’t do anything. Don’t attack. We’re talking.’”
Abrams added that he worries about “an Iranian phony negotiation to kill time.”
Trump’s nominations so far for senior roles in his forthcoming administration, including Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) for secretary of state, and Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Fla.) as national security advisor, suggest that a sharp focus on Iran and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will remain in the new government.
But only one man’s position will count in the end—Trump’s, according to Oren.
“Appointments are great, but at the end of the day, policy is made by one individual, and they carry out those policies,” the former Israeli envoy told JNS. “At the end of the day, we have to wait and see what the president’s positions are going to be.”