While Israel and the United States of America are obliterating the Iranian leadership and targeting the Iranian regime head on, the response has been an embarrassment for Iran. We may actually have discovered that the “head of the snake,” the regime that has financed much of the world’s terrorism over the past half-century, is, in fact, a paper tiger. The absurd threats from its leaders about an imminent retaliation resemble a small dog barking from behind a fence, only to run back to its corner the moment the gate is opened.
It is important, of course, to distinguish between the Iranian regime and the Iranian people. The people are determined and just in their struggle against the dictatorship that rules them. Israelis long for the day when peace between the two countries can be restored. There is no inherent hatred or hostility between them. Indeed, the Iranian public, often portrayed as weak and submissive before the violence of the totalitarian regime, has shown remarkable courage in continuing to resist it.
One can only hope that the leadership that eventually replaces this malevolent government will treat the citizens of Iran with dignity and conduct itself responsibly toward neighboring states, as well as toward the United States and Israel. For now, however, Iran’s brave citizens remain under the rule of a violent, oppressive and surprisingly weak leadership.
Iran has long known that it cannot compete with the Israeli Air Force in aerial combat. It is no coincidence that for nearly four decades, there were no direct aerial engagements between the two countries until March 4, when an Israeli Air Force F-35 Adir fighter jet shot down an Iranian Yakovlev Yak-130. In truth, it was hardly an “air battle” so much as a swift, long-range destruction.
Iran long ago understood Israel’s overwhelming air superiority and chose to invest most of its resources elsewhere: building extensive air-defense systems, developing ground-to-ground missiles as its primary weapon against Israel and establishing proxy forces across the region, particularly in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen.
True to form, Iran’s air-defense systems have proven ineffective and largely irrelevant. In the joint “Operation Epic Fury”/“Operation Roaring Lion,” the United States and Israel have carried out extensive airstrikes across Iran against military infrastructure, missile-launch facilities and targets linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Estimates suggest that, to date, approximately 1,200 to 1,300 people have been killed in these attacks.
Iran, for its part, has launched roughly 200 ballistic missiles toward Israel, along with drones and other weapons. According to estimates, about 90% to 95% have been intercepted by Israel’s air-defense systems, assisted by American systems deployed in the region. Some impacts did occur, and every life lost in war is a tragedy. Yet the number of Israeli fatalities remains very low, roughly a dozen civilians.
The true number of launchers that Iran possessed at the start of the conflict remains unknown, and Israelis who believe that most have been destroyed or disabled may well be optimistic. Still, there is little doubt that Iran now struggles to carry out large missile barrages, even if it still possesses a significant missile stockpile. Meanwhile, for Israelis, trips to shelters or safe rooms have not meaningfully disrupted economic life, and many feel this situation could continue for quite some time.
Iran’s principal proxy is Hezbollah, based in Lebanon, north of Israel. The organization’s entire strategic purpose was to serve as a reserve force if Iran itself was attacked by Israel, the United States or both. Yet its current missile attacks on Israel have been limited due to Israel’s prior degrading of its arsenal over the past two years, far from the scale that would even require evacuating large parts of Israel’s north. Its rocket arsenal does not threaten Israel’s existence, nor can it realistically initiate the kind of invasion scenario once envisioned by its elite Radwan forces.
Hezbollah still commands tens of thousands of trained fighters; however, the dramatic scenario that it once projected of crippling Israel with massive missile barrages, plunging the country into weeks of blackout and invading Israeli communities in the Galilee now appears far less plausible.
Other Shi’ite militias funded by Iran in Syria and Iraq face their own obstacles. They must contend with the Sunni forces controlling parts of Syria under Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, traverse Jordan, and, if they succeed in doing all that, would still confront Israel’s heavily fortified eastern front.
Even Yemen, whose involvement in the war against Israel over the past two and a half years has often seemed puzzling, hasn’t launched any missiles toward Israel recently. In fact, Israelis joke that when a missile alert sounds, the first question is where it was launched from. If the answer is Yemen, some people don’t even bother heading to the shelter.
None of this is a call for complacency or arrogance. Israel must take the declared goal of its enemies—the destruction of the Jewish state—with the utmost seriousness. Failing to do so risks repeating the catastrophic terror attacks Hamas commandeered in southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023.
Indeed, an Iranian response will likely come. It may take the form of attacks on embassies abroad, harm to tourists, the activation of sleeper cells for terrorist attacks or some sophisticated operation not yet imagined—one capable of causing real damage to lives and property.
Still, one thing now appears clearer to the world: The regime that aspired to dominate the Middle East, intimidate the Gulf states, challenge Europe and ultimately destroy the United States cannot even effectively defend its own territory. The long delay in its response does not suggest a masterful Iranian chess strategy. It looks far more like a poker game in which the world has discovered that the heavy gambler was bluffing all along.
