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Can ex-pat votes tip the US electoral balance?

Republican outreach emphasizes threats of progressives, while Democrats warn of rising antisemitism as both parties court crucial overseas votes.

Sticker given to U.S. voters. Credit: Wikimedia Commons.
Sticker given to U.S. voters. Credit: Wikimedia Commons.

The battle for the U.S. presidency has moved beyond American shores, with campaigns increasingly focused on the roughly 9 million American citizens abroad who are eligible to cast their ballots in the Nov. 5 election.

In a race where every vote could tip the balance, the overseas American vote has taken on newfound significance. This has prompted both the Democratic and Republican parties to launch extensive outreach efforts globally.

While American voters can be found worldwide, four regions have emerged as primary targets for campaign operations: Germany, Britain, the Scandinavian countries and, perhaps unexpectedly, Israel. These concentrations of U.S. passport holders have justified substantial organizational investments by both parties.

The Democratic Party maintains robust operations in Germany and Britain, where American expatriates traditionally lean heavily Democratic. However, the dynamics in Israel tell a different story.

Though Democrats maintain a presence in Israel, it’s the Republican Party that dominates the campaign landscape here.

“Israel is home to more than half a million eligible American voters,” says Republican Campaign Director Ariel Sender, who heads the party’s Israeli operation.

“The voting patterns here present a mirror image of American Jewish voting behavior,” Sender explains. “While Democrats typically capture 75-80% of the Jewish vote in America, here in Israel, more than 85% support the Republican Party and its presidential nominee.”

He continues: “We’re seeing unprecedented enthusiasm in this election cycle. Our message resonates naturally because voters understand what’s at stake—preventing four years of a Kamala Harris administration backed by progressive forces hostile to Israel. This concern cuts across the community, uniting both American-born Israelis and those who acquired U.S. citizenship later in life. The prospect of a Harris presidency has created real anxiety.”

While the Democratic Party hasn’t surrendered the Israeli arena, its operation runs on a much smaller scale. Sources familiar with the campaigns estimate the Democratic budget in Israel to be barely one-tenth of Republican spending.

Eitan Kushner, who chairs Democrats Abroad in Israel, confirms their continued efforts to assist voters with registration, ensure timely receipt of ballots from home districts and facilitate vote submission.

“During her vice presidency, Harris cast the decisive Senate vote that secured aid for Israel,” Kushner argues.

“She will maintain America’s historic commitment to global leadership,” he asserts, while warning that “American Jews must remain vigilant about Trump, given his trafficking in antisemitism.”

Originally appeared in Israel Hayom.

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