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Ariel Ben Solomon: Middle East Political Analysis and Commentary | JNS

Ariel Ben Solomon

Explore Ariel Ben Solomon’s analytical pieces on Middle East politics, Israel, and international relations at JNS.org.

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“The core of the administration’s Iran strategy is a devil’s bargain that will funnel billions into Iran’s imperial project across the Middle East in exchange for a temporary reprieve from Iran’s relentless march towards nuclear-weapons capability,” said John Hannah, a senior fellow at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America.
For the past several years, Jordan has come under increasing strain due to wars in bordering Iraq and Syria, which has led to many refugees resettling in Jordan. Combine a population holding divergent loyalties with a poor economic situation, and the result has been unrest.
“The new agreement reflects Jordan’s increasing importance as a logistical and operative center in anticipation of further U.S. troop withdrawal from Iraq and Syria at a time when the need for a U.S. military presence increases rather than decreases,” said Hillel Frisch.
According to the survey, the most qualified candidate for prime minister in the Arab sector is Benjamin Netanyahu, with 24.9 percent support, followed by Ahmad Tibi of the Joint Arab List with 14.3 percent.
“These deals are complex and take a great deal of time, but any one thing could spark the right opportunity for a deal to actually be announced and quickly consummated, as we have seen,” former White House special envoy Jason Greenblatt told JNS.
Exiled writer Ramin Parham says that Tehran is engaged in brinkmanship with the United States, where its position is influenced primarily by domestic existential threats.
It’s unlikely that Jerusalem will jettison its new Arab allies after a wave of normalization agreements, bolstered by its relations with Greece, Cyprus and Egypt in the Eastern Mediterranean, in exchange for some recent warm words from the Turkish president.
Veteran Arab political observer Shaheen Sarsour said even though the Joint Arab List has 15 members in the Knesset, “it does not influence the government. Mansour Abbas’s move was meant to change that.”
Independent Iran researcher Amir Toumaj said there is both a “general call for immediate retaliation and others pushing for a delayed response, arguing Tehran shouldn’t fall into a trap ahead of talks with the Biden administration.”
“I think Gulf states are hoping that Joe Biden will govern as a centrist with an experienced team and will address the weaknesses of the JCPOA,” said Ali Shihabi, an author and commentator on the Middle East with a focus on Saudi Arabia.
“The Gulf states are not considered ‘kosher’ for leading the Sunnis,” according to Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak, an expert on Turkey at the Moshe Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University.
Some Arab Knesset members quietly support Israel’s new agreements with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, but were forced to vote against them and follow the Joint List leadership.