According to Al Jazeera’s Muhanad Seloom, “Every aspect of Iran’s ability to project regional power is being successfully degraded” by the United States and Israel. This includes the destruction of large segments of Iran’s military capabilities and military production capabilities, the decimation of its proxy network, the elimination of large segments of political/military leadership and the opening of a path to regime change.
True, the article had a disclaimer that it was the work of one author and did not “necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.” But still.
So why are so many people opposed to U.S. and Israeli action against the mullah regime in Iran? Why are American allies unwilling to use what (limited) capabilities they have to secure the passage of oil from the Strait of Hormuz—particularly as they need that oil more than the United States does? Why are Israel’s Abraham Accords allies and a few other regional actors most likely to be supportive?
Much of the world simply chose to ignore the behavior of the regime over the last 47 years. While Iran ramped up external threat capabilities and internal oppression, the West responded as the West is inclined to do—offering negotiations and bribes, and promises of peace and security. While the “international community” sought “deconfliction,” the mullah government forged ahead.
Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) recently acknowledged in a TV interview that Iran had enough uranium to make nuclear bombs, but added that there was no reason to do anything about it because Iran’s missiles couldn’t yet reach the United States. Like most people, he wanted a “peaceful solution” and wanted to believe that there was time to wait.
But Iran’s capabilities mounted, and the margins got thinner. And now, the United States and Israel find themselves in a war they didn’t ask for, don’t want, but have to win.
On the plus side, it turns out that through intelligence collection and weapons advancement, Washington and Jerusalem have been preparing totake out Iran’s capabilities for about 20 years. Last summer’s carefully coordinated joint airstrikes on Iran were just a preview.
Now we are into the denouement.
Unfortunately, these unwanted but necessary military operations have exposed and alienated our NATO allies. The European Union has been adamant that this is not NATO’s war. (The Islamic Republic repaid the gesture by bombing the Al-Rasheed Hotel in Baghdad, a residence for many European diplomats.) Countries that America has been protecting since World War II either openly oppose the military campaign against Tehran or decline to be supportive—or both.
Germany’s muddle is worth considering. Its foreign minister, Johann Wadephul, stated: “It is clear that the Iranian regime poses a significant danger to its neighbors, to the entire region, to the freedom of navigation and to global economic development. This danger must definitely not continue to exist. On this point, we are in full agreement with our partners and friends in Israel and the United States.”
And German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said, “What does Trump expect a handful of European frigates to do that the powerful U.S. Navy cannot? This is not our war, and we didn’t start it.”
The United States didn’t start the Second World War either. It ended it.
On the positive side, Israel’s Abraham Accords partners and a few other countries, including the Czech Republic (thankfully, out of step with the European Union), India, Saudi Arabia, Somaliland and Azerbaijan have stepped up. Russia, China and North Korea—Iran’s supposed allies—have done just about nothing to support the mullahs.
In fact, Russia and China abstained in the U.N. Security Council on a resolution condemning Iran, making the vote 13-0 against Iran. It would have cost them nothing to veto it. They didn’t.
So, now what?
Israeli security analyst Amit Segal reports that Israel has five objectives in the war: to act jointly with the United States to reopen the Strait of Hormuz; to permanently deny any future Iranian regime the ability to again close the strait; to dismantle Iran’s weapons industry, with an emphasis on ballistic missile capabilities, targeting not just equipment but the factories that produce it; to complete the destruction of Iran’s nuclear program; and to create the conditions for regime change.
Those would seem to be in sync with American aims. And in sync with countries that understand leaving the current Iranian regime with the ability to restore itself, to sponsor terror attacks not only in the Middle East, but in Europe and the United States, and to murder its own citizens is not a tolerable future for anyone, anywhere.
That should be enough to bring us together—and together with the people of Iran.
