There are two perpetrators of the atrocities in Sudan: the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has cynically weaponized the Sudan crisis against the United Arab Emirates. He presents himself as a humanitarian voice on Sudan, while simultaneously financing the SAF, the very forces committing genocide.
The good news: U.S. President Donald Trump has expressed interest in ending the war. The real obstacle is the Eritrean dictator, who has repeatedly sabotaged American peace efforts in the region and is backing the SAF alongside Iran.
The SAF is not a national army. It is a coalition of the Muslim Brotherhood, seeking to recapture the state, and former military elites driven by economic interests. The RSF is likewise a paramilitary coalition of tribal and clan militias, long instrumentalized by Sudanese Islamists. Unfortunately, RSF’s tribal and clan militias also kill each other, as is typical in tribal and clan conflicts.
The genocide did not begin in April 2023; it is the continuation of a decades-long Muslim Brotherhood project to Arabize and Islamize Sudan, targeting non-Arab populations. The project began under Hassan al-Turabi, sheltering Osama bin Laden; it continued under Omar al-Bashir, indicted by the International Criminal Court for Darfur; and is now carried forward by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. Nothing about this crisis is new.
According to satellite images, the main suppliers of the SAF today are Iran and Belarus, channeling weapons through the Eritrean dictator, who is training and arming tens of thousands of Islamist fighters for the SAF. Their joint objective is clear: to turn Sudan into another Iranian proxy, a launchpad against Israel and U.S. targets—far more dangerous than the Houthis in Yemen.
Saudi Arabia finances the Muslim Brotherhood SAF forces, driven largely by its rivalry with the UAE. The two states diverge sharply on Gaza, Yemen, Syria and Sudan. Saudi Arabia aligns more closely with Qatar and Turkey, while the UAE aligns with Israel. The UAE opposes the return of the Muslim Brotherhood to power, positioning itself firmly against the SAF.
Qatar provides support, with the goal of reinstalling the Muslim Brotherhood in Khartoum, while Turkey backs the Brotherhood to secure its Ottoman-era port of Suakin, and provides drones to the SAF. Egypt contributes military and logistical support because the SAF and the Eritrean dictator align with Cairo against Ethiopia on the Nile.
During his visit to Washington and his meeting with Trump, MBS cynically weaponized the Sudan crisis against the UAE. He presented himself as a humanitarian voice on Sudan while backing the SAF, the very forces committing atrocities. Yet blaming the UAE for genocide in Sudan is nothing more than a reckless, politically motivated lie.
MBS successfully diverted attention away from Saudi Arabia’s human-rights record, with Western media fixating on Trump’s announcement to end the war in Sudan at MBS’s request. Although it remains to be seen whether Trump will follow through, his announcement is undeniably good news for the people of Sudan who are suffering under the war.
The UAE is also targeted by Iran, the Eritrean dictator, Qatar, Turkey, the Muslim Brotherhood and their Western allies. This is because it rejects the return of the Muslim Brotherhood in Sudan, its normalization with Israel and its uncompromising stance against Islamist terrorists: Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis in Yemen, the Islamist SAF in Sudan and Turkey-backed Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa (Abu Mohammad al-Jolani) in Syria.
The UAE’s investments in the Horn of Africa are cynically branded as “new imperialism” by the Muslim Brotherhood and its Western allies. Yet its ports and infrastructure projects—from Berbera to Aden—along with investments in renewable energy, agriculture and industrial zones, directly benefit local populations. Iran and Turkey, with their large militaries and long histories of empire, are the ones pursuing imperial ambitions; the UAE is not. While North America begs for UAE investment, these same forces oppose the UAE’s investment in the Horn of Africa. They prefer to keep the region’s people poor and suffering.
In part, the UAE is attacked in Sudan by the Muslim Brotherhood and its Western allies precisely because of its relationship with Israel. But in Israel’s media and political discourse, Sudan is barely mentioned. Israel is the only country not involved in Sudan, yet it is the one that will be most directly threatened if the Muslim Brotherhood returns to power. Iran and the Eritrean dictator intend to replicate the Yemen model: arm a few Islamist militias with missiles and open a new front against Israel in the Red Sea.
Sudan has historically been hostile to Israel, adopting the “Three Nos”: no recognition, no negotiation and no normalization adopted at the Khartoum Arab Summit in September 1967, following the Six-Day War in June. Its return to the 2020 Abraham Accords during the first Trump administration happened only because it needed removal from the U.S list of state sponsors of terrorism and financial aid from the World Bank and International Monetary Fund.
Under Omar al-Bashir, Sudan had a strong central authority. Today, al-Burhan controls neither the army nor the Islamist networks within it. Iran and the Eritrean dictator only need a handful of Islamist militias to turn Sudan into a platform for attacks against Israel. These militias will gain popularity in Sudan, much like the Houthis in Yemen, because attacking Israel is the easiest path to legitimacy in failed Arab states—states that cannot provide jobs, security or dignity to their citizens.
Good news comes amid MBS’s cynical exploitation of Sudanese suffering: Trump has expressed his interest in intervening to end the war. He has the potential to achieve a historic resolution, as he has done in the Israeli-Hamas, Democratic Republic of Congo-Rwanda and Armenia-Azerbaijan conflicts. But he must understand the real obstacles to peace in Sudan. The RSF is not the main problem. While he can pressure Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Egypt and Turkey into a ceasefire or coordination mechanism, that would only limit arms supplies to the RSF.
Satellite images show that Iran and Belarus are supplying arms to the SAF through the Eritrean dictator, the main obstacle to peace. These actors openly violate sanctions, international law and the authority of both the United States and the United Nations. Most importantly, the Eritrean dictator, who has repeatedly sabotaged U.S. peace efforts in the region, remains the central barrier to ending the war in Sudan. He has a long-standing relationship with Sudanese Islamists and considers them partners against the West.
Eritrea’s geography gives the dictator enormous leverage: Port Sudan, the country’s sole logistical artery, is closest to Eritrea, and the road to Khartoum runs near the Eritrean border. The Eritrean dictator controls the Beja tribes in Eastern Sudan and Islamist networks inside the SAF, using them as proxies to sabotage peace efforts and blackmail Al-Burhan.
The Eritrean dictator is the main obstacle to Trump’s achieving another historic peace in Sudan. Meanwhile, MBS’s hypocrisy and opportunism in Sudan not only distract from this real barrier to ending the war but also obscure Iran’s growing influence, risking Sudan becoming another dangerous Iranian proxy.
