Decision Desk HQ, an elections website, raised eyebrows when it called the Seattle mayoral race for incumbent Bruce Harrell on Nov. 7. Then, later on in the day, it un-called the race.
As of the most recent data that the state released, on Friday, Harrell has 116,435 votes (50.74%) to 112,135 (48.86%) for for Katie Wilson, in a race in which new ballot counts have been dropping around 4 p.m. local time each day.
Wilson has been chipping away at the incumbent’s lead. The 1.88 point difference on Friday was significantly narrower than Harrell’s 5.71 point lead, after ballots dropped on Thursday.
A progressive who has accused Israel of “genocide” and whom the Council on American-Islamic Relations endorsed, Wilson trailed Harrell by 8.15 points after ballots were counted on Wednesday, the day after Election Day. Both Harrell and Wilson are Democrats.
“Seattle election history tells us that Katie Wilson has every reason to be optimistic today,” Brandi Kruse, host of the political podcast unDivided, told JNS on Friday, before the latest ballot count.
“I also think the Wilson campaign will be more aggressive in ballot curing. Bruce’s campaign has been far less energized and mobilized,” Kruse said. “In a close race, ballot curing could be the deciding factor.”
“Curing” in Washington state refers to giving voters an opportunity to correct invalidated or missing signatures. Auditors are required to notify voters by first-class mail and, if available, by phone, email or text message, about how to complete an unsigned ballot. State law also prohibits “curing” in a recount, so campaigns often work around the clock to cure ballots before an election is certified.
Wilson’s campaign called the race a “nailbiter” on Thursday. It added that “King County is counting ballots much more slowly than normal this year.”
On Friday, the campaign said that more than 285,000 ballots had been received, “exceeding turnout from 2021.”
“Many of those were Election Day voters, and over 100,000 votes have not yet been counted,” the campaign said. “There’s much to feel hopeful about.”
Later on Friday, the campaign stated that “we’re on the right track” and that more ballots would be counted on Monday.
It wasn’t clear how many of the remaining ballots are from Seattle.
David Kroman, who covers City Hall for the Seattle Times, wrote on Friday, prior to the ballot drop, that the county expected about 50,000 new Seattle ballots that day. “I think that will give us a pretty good idea of who’s going to win, though it’s probably not enough for anyone to concede,” he wrote.
After the ballots dropped, Kroman wrote that Wilson “made big gains on Bruce Harrell in today’s vote count, narrowing a 10,000 gap to 4,300,” and “with 45,000 ballots left to count, this thing could be decided by a triple (maybe even double?) digit number.”
“If Wilson wins remaining ballots by today’s margin,” he added, “she’ll win by 20 votes. It’s probably not exactly 45,000 ballots, but still. Incredible.”
