Saudi Crown Prime Mohammed bin Salman received the royal treatment at the White House on Tuesday, with U.S. President Donald Trump ordering up an artillery salute, fighter jet flyover and brass band.
More significantly, the United States and Saudi Arabia finalized a sweeping set of agreements that significantly expand their strategic, economic and defense partnership, including the sale of America’s most advanced fighter plane, the F-35.
The question is: Should Israel be concerned?
At least publicly, the deal has been met with silence both by Israel and by American Jewish organizations. The two notable exceptions are the Zionist Organization of America and Americans for a Safe Israel, which have sharply criticized the F-35 sale, saying it undermines Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge. QME refers to a country’s superiority in advanced technology, training, intelligence and overall military effectiveness.
“They’re selling F 35s, the most highly advanced jet on earth, to a country which has strategic partnerships with two of America’s biggest enemies—China and Iran—and which has a mutual defense agreement with Pakistan,” ZOA President Morton Klein told JNS.
The Saudis themselves are an “Islamic dictatorship,” he added.
Not only Klein is worried. The Israeli Air Force delivered a position paper to Israel’s leadership on Nov. 16 warning that the sale could erode Israel’s military dominance.
Klein said Israeli officials visited Washington, D.C. several weeks ago “begging” the administration not to sell the Saudis its fifth-generation fighters. When they lost that battle, Israel requested that the sale at least be conditioned on the Saudis joining the Abraham Accords. That also didn’t happen, Klein said.
Trump should be more concerned that this technology could ultimately fall into the hands of China, Iran or Pakistan, Klein said. A Pentagon intelligence report expressed fears that China could acquire the F-35 technology through the Saudis, The New York Times reported last week.
Klein said that the deal violates U.S. law, referring to a U.S. legal obligation to maintain Israel’s QME. It’s important that pro-Israel groups register their disapproval, he said. Representatives of AIPAC, the main U.S. pro-Israel lobbying group, told Klein they were against the sale, but didn’t speak up. “We figured it’s a done deal. There’s nothing we can do,” they told him, he said.
Klein acknowledged that Republican senators shared with him this week that the F-35s the Saudis would receive would not be as advanced as those of the Israelis, despite Trump’s White House comments suggesting they would be “top of the line.”
Worried about China
Gregg Roman, executive director of the Middle East Forum, a U.S. think tank that promotes American interests in the Mideast, agreed that the U.S. should be worried about China gaining access to F-35 technology, but was less concerned about the effects the F-35 sale would have on Israel’s military edge.
Israel’s version of the F-35 is significantly more advanced than what Saudi Arabia would receive, with its superior avionics, electronics and integrated defense systems. Combined with Israel’s intelligence network, early-warning capabilities and overall operational proficiency, these advantages keep Israel far ahead, Roman said.
Saudi Arabia lacks Israel’s training, wartime experience and strategic capability, and therefore cannot match Israel simply by acquiring this or that military platform, he said. “Israel’s edge doesn’t come from platforms. It comes from people.”
Unlike Klein, the U.S.-Saudi deal left Roman “cautiously optimistic.” Although the Saudi crown prince declined to join the Abraham Accords on this visit, he indicated that he wanted to do so. It opens the door for other Muslim countries to join the accords, Roman said.
Saudi Arabia conditions joining the accords on a pathway for a Palestinian state. Roman argued this doesn’t preclude Saudi Arabia from one day joining the accords. “A pathway doesn’t mean a Palestinian state. It just means a framework that could allow the Saudis to join.”
In a fact sheet published on its official website, the White House stressed that the U.S.-Saudi economic and defense deal is a big win for the administration’s “America First” policy, highlighting the $1 trillion in Saudi investment commitments that will “expand opportunities for high-paying American jobs.”
Roman said there are other drivers as well. Trump wants to expand the Abraham Accords. And he wants to improve the ability of America’s Mideast allies to defend themselves rather than rely on America. Trump wants to enable the U.S. to reduce its footprint in the region.
“It really has to do with Trump’s national security strategy, which is to give allies the means to fight for themselves, rather than relying on the U.S. to fight for them,” Roman said.
Riyadh has already cooperated closely with Israel on regional defense, including participating in Middle East air-defense efforts during Iran’s missile attacks, he said.
Saudi early-warning radar data is already integrated into Israeli warning systems, reflecting deep but largely unpublicized security ties, he noted.
Benjamin Netanyahu doesn’t criticize the deal because he understands the broader strategic relationship at play, Roman said. It would only antagonize the U.S. president at a moment when the prime minister needs his support.
Dan Schueftan, chairman of the National Security Studies Center at the University of Haifa, is still more upbeat. He agreed that positive Saudi signals about the Abraham Accords may pave the way for other Muslim countries to sign on. “I’m particularly interested in Indonesia. If they join, it will open up opportunities for Israel,” he said.
Schueftan attached far less importance to a formal normalization treaty with the Saudis than to substantive improvement in informal relations. If the Saudis cooperate in the vision put forward by former U.S. President Joe Biden, of a trade-transit route running from India, through the Persian Gulf and Israel to Europe, that would be far more valuable than a signing ceremony on the White House lawn, he said.
That trade route, called the India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor, or IMEC, aims to bolster economic integration between Asia, the Persian Gulf and Europe, and act as a strategic alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Saudi Arabia and Israel would play a crucial role in the IMEC.
Of the F-35 sale, Schueftan conceded, “I’m not very happy with it,” but said improving U.S.-Saudi relations is important. He expressed confidence that the U.S. would compensate Israel for any loss in its qualitative military edge.
For Schueftan, what matters is that U.S.-Israel ties have never been better. The June war against Iran marked the first time the U.S. participated in military action with Israel. And in the Gaza Strip, Israel now has “legitimacy” to confront the inevitable breakdown in the ceasefire.
Israel enjoys a “dramatically better” strategic situation than before the Oct. 7, 2023, war with Hamas, Schueftan said, and “to a large extent because of Donald Trump.”
