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Oded Granot

The very fact that a nuclear deal is nearing has given a tailwind to Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, who has been ratcheting up the threats against Israel.
The Hezbollah leader may be about to repeat the same mistake he made in 2006, when he underestimated Israel’s response to a provocation.
Even after the presidential visit, Washington will have to work hard to convince its Arab partners in the Middle East that the U.S. is, indeed, determined to handle Iran and fill the vacuum that allowed Russia and China to step in.
Concerned as they might be about the threat Iran poses to the Middle East, several countries in the region do not want to anger the Islamic republic.
Israel will want guarantees on any nuclear deal with Iran, while Biden will have to put on a brave face when he meets the Saudi crown prince.
No one need be alarmed at reports that the UAE is in contact with Iran. If the Vienna talks fail, the Emirati connection could wind up being a vital communications channel.
One thing is absolutely certain: Washington’s restraint in the face of ongoing Iranian red-line violations is what emboldened Tehran to launch the suicide drone at the oil tanker.
The terror group would sign a ceasefire in a heartbeat if offered the opportunity. Its leaders understand that their situation is bad and getting worse by the minute.
The Arab Spring left monarchies in place, but Arab monarchs fearful for their thrones and dynasties. Jordan’s king has taken steps to ensure that the crown goes to his own son rather than his popular half-brother.