In the wake of the historic collapse of the Assad regime following an 11-day rebel offensive, Russia has started withdrawing from its strategic bases along Syria’s coastal strip, removing military and technological equipment from its naval base in Tartus and its airbase in Khmeimim. This situation threatens to significantly undermine Russia’s regional and international standing. Consequently, Moscow is already seeking ways to extend its military presence in the region.
Russia began transferring equipment on Dec. 14 via an Ilyushin Il-76 aircraft, dismantling parts of its S-400 air-defense systems and transport helicopters stationed at Khmeimim. Earlier, Russian warships docked in Tartus were moved to open waters, with at least three anchoring 13 kilometers, about 8 miles, offshore. Strategically, the naval base in Tartus has served as the primary launch point for Russian naval operations in the eastern Mediterranean. Meanwhile, the Khmeimim airbase, established in 2015 near Latakia, is Russia’s most crucial aviation hub in the Middle East.
Russia’s involvement in Syria dates back to a 2015 agreement with then-President Bashar Assad that allowed Moscow to station forces in the country for 49 years. The airbase was a linchpin of Russian influence in the Middle East, while the naval base, which has been operational since 1971 and upgraded in 2017, served as a vital logistical hub. These bases have enabled Russia to maintain a substantial strategic presence across the Middle East and Africa.
Yet reports of partial evacuations raise questions about whether this is the prelude to a complete withdrawal. Russian officials indicate an intent to negotiate with Syria’s new regime to retain these bases, though no official agreements have been confirmed.
Russia’s presence in Syria has positioned it as a key player in the Middle East, influencing regional conflicts in Syria, Libya and beyond. However, withdrawing from bases like Khmeimim and Tartus could weaken Russia’s foothold, depriving it of access to a warm-water port—a long-standing strategic objective. Tartus is Russia’s only warm-water port aside from Vladivostok in the Pacific Ocean and Sevastopol in Crimea, which is restricted to the Black Sea. Maintaining the Tartus naval base has justified Russia’s extensive investment in sustaining Assad’s rule.
The rise of a new Syrian regime could push the country closer to the West or result in efforts to curb Russian influence, jeopardizing Moscow’s regional sway. Although Russia has historically allied with the Assad family, it may now be forced to negotiate with the rebels to preserve its interests.
Western analysts argue that warm-water ports are a cornerstone of Russian foreign policy aimed at competing with NATO and the United States. The primary concern is that vacating these bases could create a power vacuum that could potentially be filled by Western or even Chinese forces, further diminishing Russia’s ability to safeguard its interests.
Logistically, the Khmeimim and Tartus bases have been crucial for transporting goods and arms to Africa, particularly to nations like Libya, Mali, Niger and Sudan. Abandoning these facilities could compel Russia to find alternative infrastructure, increasing costs and complicating its influence in Africa.
Amid its prolonged war in Ukraine, which has resulted in more than 200,000 Russian military casualties in the last two years, any withdrawal from Syria could be perceived as a retreat from global influence. While Russia’s military remains the world’s second-largest with 1.5 million troops, Moscow is acutely aware of the demographic and strategic toll of its ongoing conflicts. A retreat from Syria could reinforce perceptions of Russia as a declining power on the international stage. President Vladimir Putin is likely to make every effort to extend his country’s presence in the Middle East to safeguard its critical interests.
Anonymous sources in Moscow, Europe and the Middle East confirm ongoing negotiations to maintain operations at Tartus and Khmeimim. Russian officials claim to have “unofficial understandings” with the rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham regarding continued access to these strategic facilities.
Nevertheless, reports indicate that Russia is withdrawing at least 400 troops from the Damascus area in coordination with Syria’s new authorities. The implications of this withdrawal extend beyond military presence, potentially affecting Russia’s security, economic and strategic interests in the Middle East, Africa and even Southern Europe.
Aware of these risks, Russia appears determined to prolong its military presence in Syria. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has described the bases as subjects of “serious discussion” with Syria’s new leadership, emphasizing that all necessary precautions are being taken to secure Russia’s interests.
Should an agreement with the new regime prove elusive, a full withdrawal could reshape the global balance of power, diminishing Moscow’s influence in the Middle East and beyond for years to come.