Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Calif.), a pro-Israel Democrat, and Elizabeth Barcohana, who chairs the California Republican Party’s new subcommittee for Jewish engagement, have very different views of the upcoming vote on Proposition 50, the redistricting measure, which California Gov. Gavin Newsom has championed.
If Californians vote for the measure on Nov. 4, the state legislature would draw up new congressional maps, which would be in place until 2030, after which the independent redistricting commission would take over again, per the state, which says that the move is “in response to Texas’s partisan redistricting.”
Prop 50 is “a desperate partisan power grab that would eliminate five consistently pro-Israel members of Congress and give more influence to Democrats that spread hate, division and promote extreme anti-Israel policies,” according to Sam Markstein, communications director of the Republican Jewish Coalition.
“The RJC encourages all California voters to vote no on Prop 50 and reject Newsom’s attempt to silence pro-Israel conservative leadership in Congress,” Markstein told JNS.
The five Republican congressmen whose seats could be in jeopardy are Darrell Issa, Kevin Kiley, David Valadao, Ken Calvert and Doug LaMalfa. All are “consistently pro-Israel,” Barcohana told JNS.
Democrats are “prioritizing partisan politics and getting back at Donald Trump and making sure the Democrats hold the House at the expense of pro-Israel Jewish voters, who have typically been supportive of the Democrats in California and across the nation,” she said.
Sherman, who is Jewish, supports Prop 50 and told JNS that “every Democrat I can name is in favor of Prop 50,” because “we want to control Donald Trump.”
“It’s good to have a pro-Israel Republican in Congress, at least from an Israel standpoint,” Sherman said. “But it’s even more important to have a pro-Israel Democrat in a Democratic caucus where we’re fighting to keep both parties pro-Israel.”
“I think we’re going to elect pro-Israel Democrats in the new seats,” he told JNS.
Sherman thinks that three Republicans are likely to lose their seats under the state redistricting and two would have more competitive races.
Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.) will likely see his race go from safe or Republican-leaning to a toss-up, according to Barcohana. The Democratic Party is rallying behind one of Issa’s opponents, Ammar Campa-Najjar, who is the grandson of a founding member of Fatah who was also “one of the orchestrators” of the 1972 Munich massacre, she said.
“It’s disingenuous for the Democrats to say that they prioritize the pro-Israel position and fighting against antisemitism,” she told JNS. “They will put partisanship in promoting the Democratic Party at the expense of their pro-Israel voters.”
Sherman told JNS that Campa-Najjar is one of several candidates who might emerge as the Democratic candidate for that seat, and it’s no “slam dunk” that he would become Issa’s main opponent.
‘An off-year’
Barcohana and Sherman disagreed on another race, that of Rep. David Min (D-Calif.), a freshman congressman who represents Orange County, just south of Los Angeles
Barcohana told JNS that Min, who has participated in press conferences with the progressive “squad” and isn’t considered pro-Israel, would have a competitive race turn safe under Prop 50 and “give him less of an incentive to moderate.”
Sherman told JNS that Min will likely be reelected irrespective of whether Prop 50 passes. “This is an off-year,” he said. “It should be a decent year for Democrats.”
Nationally, redistricting will cost Democrats some eight to 10 seats, Sherman thinks. “I have no idea whether those seats would be a pro-Israel Democrat or an anti-Israel Democrat,” he said. “You just can’t tell.”
Democrats would likely pick up five seats if Prop 50 passes, “but we’re going to lose them in a lot of other states,” he said. “Prop 50 is designed to help the Democrats get an even shot at taking back the House.”
Sherman thinks that Democrats will retake the House next year if Prop 50 passes, but that the reason will be Democrats getting elected in swing seats, not redistricting.
“Swing-seat Democrats are the most pro-Israel Democrats,” he said.
‘Not about me’
Sherman told JNS that Prop 50 could make him “a little bit more vulnerable” to a “well-financed Democratic challenger”next year, because it would redraw his district to include Simi Valley, in neighboring Ventura County, where he isn’t as well-known. He would also lose 150,000 constituents in the San Fernando Valley, which he has represented for nearly 30 years.
“It’s not about me. It’s about taking control of the House,” said the congressman, who is facing several opponents. “We’ve got to take control of the House.”
He also told JNS that “redistricting is less important than the price of beef and gas 11 months from now.”
Barcohana told JNS that Republicans have already won the redistricting battle nationwide, thanks to efforts in states like Missouri and North Carolina. Florida and Indiana are discussing redistricting measures.
“The question for Californians becomes, are you going to hurt California in order to prove a point when you’ve already lost?” she said. “By drawing safe districts, the voters matter less, and so the candidates and the electeds who ultimately sit in the seat become less accountable and responsive to the voters.”
“It’s bad for California and bad for democracy, regardless of what happens in any other state,” she said.
Unless Republicans start engaging in early voting, Barcohana thinks that Prop 50 will pass. “Mathematically, we can’t catch up to the opposition when they’ve been voting for 30 days and we only vote on one day,” she said.
One effect, she said, is that creating safer Democrat districts in California could allow Democrats to redirect money nationally which would be spent in-state, which has “the most competitive districts in the nation, which means that we have multiple of the most expensive congressional races in the nation.”
Some $100 million “that would otherwise have gotten spent in California in 2026 on the Democrat side” could be dispatched to “other states to defend vulnerable Democrats and to go after vulnerable Republicans,” she said.
