Despite his promises to intervene on the side of Iranian protesters, U.S. President Donald Trump may find an absence of good options, according to Daniel Shapiro, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel.
Trump has said that he will help the Iranian protesters in what Shapiro, who served under former President Barack Obama, called “the most significant existential threat the Islamic Republic has faced in its 47-year history.”
But the United States doesn’t have an aircraft carrier in the region to launch attacks against Iran and may not be able to use the airplanes based in Arab nations, Shapiro said on Tuesday during a briefing sponsored by Democratic Majority for Israel.
He added that Iranian security headquarters are spread widely around the country, and, as the ayatollah is feeble, his death may not weaken the regime, which has already killed thousands of protesters.
“We have the president pretty far out on a limb saying he’s going to do something, but I think the options are complicated, not so easy to execute, and of uncertain capability to actually achieve meaningful results or support the protesters,” Shapiro said in the briefing.
Shapiro said credible reports have indicated that as many as 12,000 people may have been killed by government forces.
“This is really already become quite a bloodbath,” he said. “It speaks to the extraordinary courage and determination of the Iranian people that they pour into the streets. They are utterly sick and disgusted with this regime, its corruption, its mismanagement, its brutality and its repression.”
Trump used social media on Tuesday to encourage the protesters.
“Iranian Patriots, keep protesting. Take over your institutions,” he wrote. “Save the names of the killers and abusers. They will pay a big price. I have cancelled all meetings with Iranian officials until the senseless killing of protesters stops. Help is on its way.” (He used an acronym that appeared to refer to “make Iran great again.”)
“There’s no question that protesters really took inspiration from his statement,” Shapiro said of Trump’s social-media post.
The former envoy said during the briefing that it was “probably a wise decision” for Trump to rebuff Iranian requests for a new round of talks.
“That was likely only to be a delaying tactic,” he said. “It’s really too little, too late.”
But the Iranians may have decided to get out in front of a possible U.S. attack by going after its own people and increasing its repression, Shapiro said.
After all, Trump already removed the leader of Venezuela in a military action, and it could have signaled that Iran was next, he said.
“It certainly has put in the minds of the Iranian leadership that at the same time that he’s making statements about how he would come to the support of the Iranian people, that he’s probably serious about acting,” Shapiro said.
“In the meantime, things happen. There’s some plausible connection between the timing and the statements and the actions taken by the Iranians in recent days,” he said. “Does not mean there won’t be a U.S. response in some significant way, but in a way, the surprise element was no longer available, and so that may have contributed to the Iranian decision.”
Trump told reporters after a visit to Detroit that he will “act accordingly” once he gets more information about the death toll.
Asked if air strikes would protect the protesters, Trump said, according to White House pool reports, that “you never know. So far, my track record has been excellent.”
“They’ve got to show humanity,” the president said. “They’ve got a big problem, and I hope they’re not going to be killing people, and I’m going to have a report very soon.”
