There’s something unsettling about watching a winning hand being folded mid-game. But is Washington actually succumbing to Tehran’s machinations?
Given U.S. President Donald Trump’s statements over the past few days—in off-the-cuff remarks to reporters, in his speech at Turning Point USA and in a slew of declarations on Truth Social—it sure began to seem that way.
The following slew of his posts on April 17 are illustrative:
- “IRAN HAS JUST ANNOUNCED THAT THE STRAIT OF IRAN IS FULLY OPEN AND READY FOR FULL PASSAGE. THANK YOU!”
- “THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS COMPLETELY OPEN AND READY FOR BUSINESS AND FULL PASSAGE, BUT THE NAVAL BLOCKADE WILL REMAIN IN FULL FORCE AND EFFECT AS IT PERTAINS TO IRAN, ONLY, UNTIL SUCH TIME AS OUR TRANSACTION WITH IRAN IS 100% COMPLETE. THIS PROCESS SHOULD GO VERY QUICKLY IN THAT MOST OF THE POINTS ARE ALREADY NEGOTIATED. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP”
- “The U.S.A. will get all Nuclear ‘Dust,’ created by our great B2 Bombers - No money will exchange hands in any way, shape, or form. This deal is in no way subject to Lebanon, either, but the USA will, separately, work with Lebanon, and deal with the Hezboolah [sic] situation in an appropriate manner. Israel will not be bombing Lebanon any longer. They are PROHIBITED from doing so by the U.S.A. Enough is enough!!! Thank you! President DJT”
- “Iran, with the help of the U.S.A., has removed, or is removing, all sea mines! Thank you! President DJT”
- “Again! This deal is not tied, in any way, to Lebanon, but we will, MAKE LEBANON GREAT AGAIN!”
- “Iran has agreed to never close the Strait of Hormuz again. It will no longer be used as a weapon against the World! President DONALD J. TRUMP.”
Not only did these comments suggest that the Islamic Republic was on the verge of accepting unconditional surrender; they came in the wake of Trump’s recent claim that the war was winding down and likely about to end.
Never mind the overly optimistic depiction; this president’s penchant for hyperbole is something we’ve come to expect. It was his uncharacteristically testy tone toward Israel that came as a stinging surprise.
Whether the jab at the Jewish states put smiles on the faces of the remaining powers-that-be in Tehran—whoever they may be in the rubble of the demolished regime—is anyone’s guess. What’s obvious, however, is that even the so-called “pragmatists” at the shaky helm aren’t accepting Trump’s version of events.
Take the stance of Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, as a prime example. The Iranian parliament speaker—who led the Islamic Republic’s delegation to the failed marathon talks in Pakistan on April 11-12 with U.S. Vice President JD Vance and other officials—didn’t hesitate to reject every word uttered by Trump.
In an April 18 thread on X, Ghalibaf wrote: “1 - The president of the United States made seven claims in one hour, all seven of which were false. 2 - They [the Americans] did not win the war with these lies, and they will certainly not get anywhere in negotiations either. 3 - With the continuation of the blockade, the Strait of Hormuz will not remain open. 4 - Passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be conducted based on the ‘designated route’ and with ‘Iranian authorization.’ 5 - Whether the Strait is open or closed and the regulations governing it will be determined by the field, not by social media. 6 - Media warfare and engineering public opinion are an important part of war, and the Iranian nation is not affected by these tricks.”
The rebuke of Trump from Tehran didn’t end there. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei doubled down on the message.
In an interview with Iranian state TV IRIB—reported by the Islamic Republic News Agency (INRA), among other outlets—Baghaei asserted that any progress toward an agreement with the United States will be recognized only when Iran itself determines that its “national interests, rights and red lines” are fully secured.
The ceasefire framework, he said, is limited in scope and duration; no extension has been discussed. And the Strait of Hormuz? It remains under Iranian supervision, with any continued American blockade to be met with a “firm response.”
This clash of narratives would be less troubling if it were merely rhetorical. But it goes to the heart of how the Islamic Republic wages war and, crucially, how it and the rest of the jihadist world try to avoid losing one.
Militarily, the imbalance is obvious. The United States possesses overwhelming superiority in every realm other than that of double-speak and propaganda-spreading.
Tehran’s advantage, like that of its proxies, has always existed in the ability to manipulate perception, to blur lines between perpetrator and victim and to exploit the West’s chronic susceptibility to wishful thinking. It understands that battles are not fought solely with planes and tanks, but by way of story lines that seep into public consciousness. It’s an arena in which jihadists are champions. One need look no further than the halls of Harvard.
While aware of this phenomenon, Trump doesn’t grasp the depths of Islamist religious ideology, which is far harder to confront than armies and navies. That’s the bad news.
The good news is that nobody, least of all Trump, likes being played for a fool. So, Iran is pushing its luck and not merely through bluster. Indeed, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) fired on two Indian ships in the Strait of Hormuz on April 18.
This is despite the fast-approaching end to the two-week ceasefire. The deadline for Tehran to agree to U.S. conditions for a deal is April 22.
Though Trump’s been vague about whether he means to extend the truce, he’s not likely to be flexible at this point.
During a joint press conference on April 16 with Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine, Secretary of Defense/War Pete Hegseth issued a warning to Tehran, referring to the U.S. blockade as the “polite way this can go.”
Addressing the Islamic Republic, he said, “You like to say publicly ... that you control the Strait of Hormuz. But you don’t have a navy or real domain awareness. You can’t control anything. To be clear: Threatening to shoot missiles and drones at commercial ships that are lawfully transiting international waters—that is not control. That’s piracy. That’s terrorism.”
He continued, “The United States Navy controls the traffic going in and out of the strait, because we have real assets and real capabilities. ... The math is clear. We’re using 10% of the world’s most powerful navy, and you have 0% of your navy. That’s real control, and we have a long track record of dealing with pirates and terrorists. But there is an alternative. As our negotiators have said, you, Iran, can choose a prosperous future, a golden bridge. And we hope that you do for the people of Iran. ... But if Iran chooses poorly, then they will have a blockade and bombs dropping on infrastructure, power and energy.”
Well, the IRGC certainly hasn’t been opting for the outcome desired by Washington, Jerusalem or the Iranian people. Trump, therefore, must stick to his literal and figurative guns.
After all, the last thing he would want is for the United States to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
