Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s announcement on Dec. 26 that Israel officially recognizes the independence of Somaliland could create a critical opportunity to outflank the Iranian-Houthi axis that has damaged maritime traffic to Eilat.
Somaliland, a breakaway region of Somalia positioned on the Horn of Africa, sits directly on the Gulf of Aden, overlooking the approaches to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. For an Israeli defense establishment grappling with a Houthi naval blockade, the geography of this newly public ally offers alternatives that were previously not available.
Israeli Rear Adm. (res.) Eli Marom, who served as commander of the Israel Navy from 2007 to 2011, told JNS that the details of the new relationship are not yet clear, adding that “all we are hearing at the moment is a lot of rumors.”
However, Marom sketched out potentially significant strategic advantages held by Somaliland’s location. “Somaliland is located at the opening of the Red Sea. It is relatively close to Bab el-Mandeb, quite close to Yemen—a few hundred kilometers—but not far like Israel,” he stated.
The former Navy chief noted that the strategic strait of Bab el-Mandeb has become a choke point where the Iranian-backed Houthis have “paralyzed movement to the State of Israel via the Red Sea,” effectively forcing most shipping to and from Israel to circumnavigate the African continent.
Marom pointed out that the Houthis utilize open-source intelligence to target vessels. “They sit on the list of those who visited Israel, which is not secret. And then what you get is ships that, from their [the Houthis’] perspective, are legitimate targets for attack.”
In this context, a foothold in the Horn of Africa could change operational calculus.
“If there is an Israeli base there where soldiers can operate from, then one does not need to go down from Eilat every time to the Bab el-Mandeb straits, which is a very, very large distance—it is a thousand miles,” Marom said. “It is possible to do this [operate] in the nearby area, and it would be much more convenient for the State of Israel.”
Marom expanded on the potential threat this poses to Israel’s primary adversary, Iran.
“One also needs to look at more distant circles, such as Iran, for example. The range shortens significantly when you are in Somaliland. If you have a logistical base there where you can treat vessels, arm them, refuel them, and resupply them, this is a very significant event that can influence all the naval power dynamics in the arena. Therefore, I think this can develop into a strategic event,” he said.
However, Marom offered a sober caveat regarding the Israel Navy’s current capacity to utilize such an asset.
“I want to say with maximum caution, we have no information that the government of Somaliland invited us, or the IDF, to be hosted in this land,” he stressed. Furthermore, he argued that the current naval order of battle is insufficient for such an expansion.
“The Navy will need to grow significantly so that it can truly fulfill its full designation … which is, among other things, ensuring vital shipping to the State of Israel,” Marom said. “I will just mention that in the past, we had a base in Sharm el-Sheikh. In those days, when there were missile ships in both Sharm el-Sheikh and Haifa, there were many more vessels in the Navy.”
Marom concluded that to handle the Mediterranean defense task of protecting gas rigs and Israel’s coastline, while simultaneously operating in the southern Red Sea, “the Navy will need to grow significantly.”
Karmon’s assessment
Dr. Ely Karmon, a senior research scholar at the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT) at Reichman University in Herzliya, told JNS that the move must be viewed through the lens of the coalition forming against the Houthis’ presence in Yemen.
“From a strategic perspective, Somaliland is an important base for activity against the Houthis in Yemen,” Karmon said.
He linked the move to the broader regional footprint of the United Arab Emirates. “This integrates with the cooperation with the Emiratis in the area, in the island of Socotra, also in the context of the struggle against the Houthis,” Karmon noted. The UAE has established a significant sphere of influence in southern Yemen and the Socotra archipelago, which sits at the mouth of the Gulf of Aden.
According to Karmon, “The progress of Emirati influence in southern Yemen could build an array for ground action against the Houthis, which is needed—or likely—to bring about the defeat of this hostile and dangerous regime.”
Karmon also highlighted a secondary, often overlooked geopolitical layer: the rivalry with Turkey.
“A foothold in Somaliland is a successful anti-Turkish move, given that Somalia has been an important base for some time for Turkish penetration into the African continent,” Karmon explained. He noted that there are reports regarding Somalia serving as a base for “ballistic missile testing by Turkey.”
On the diplomatic front, Karmon views this as a continuation of recent Israeli successes. “This is another success after the changes in South America and the return to good relations with Bolivia, Chile, and perhaps, Colombia and Honduras,” he said.
However, regarding Netanyahu’s framing of the move as part of the spirit of the Abraham Accords, Karmon was skeptical.
Somaliland “is not recognized or legitimate in the Arab world. This is one of the problems with the move, and it may anger Saudi Arabia,” Karmon assessed.
Despite the complexities, and referencing recent comments by U.S. President Donald Trump regarding the recognition (“We’ll study it … Does anyone know what Somaliland is, really?”), Karmon added, “Despite Trump’s words, it is not impossible that the move is coordinated with the United States.”
‘Most important springboard’
Oded Ailam, a former head of the Counterterrorism Division in the Mossad and currently a researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs (JCSFA), described the recognition as a major asset for Israeli intelligence gathering.
“This is a most important springboard for Israel,” Ailam told JNS. “The location of Somaliland generates an operational and intelligence platform vis-à-vis Yemen and even vis-à-vis Iran.”
Ailam agreed with Karmon regarding the Turkish dimension, viewing the alliance as a necessary counter-balance to Ankara’s expansionism.
“Such cooperation with a Muslim country located in such a strategic place constitutes a response to the imperialist aspirations of the Ottoman Sultan Erdogan,” Ailam said. He added that this move “joins the new naval alliance that has been woven between Israel, Greece and Cyprus in light of the Turkish threat.”
