The Israel Defense Forces and the Israel Security Agency (Shin Bet) are looking into suspicions that a source within the security establishment with access to confidential information is placing bets on the gambling site Polymarket, Israel’s public broadcaster Kan News reported on Thursday.
Polymarket, which bills itself as the “world’s largest prediction market,” is a website where users use cryptocurrency to bet on the outcomes of real-world events, from sports to finance to geopolitics.
Days after the suspect account was opened, on June 13, it scored its biggest win, earning more than $128,700 by betting that Israel would take military action against Iran, an outcome considered only 14% likely at the time, the New York Post reported on Jan. 10.
Polymarket determines the odds of specific events by aggregating user bets to determine the perceived probability of a given outcome.
Making things still more interesting, the account has bet $15,517.18 that Israel will attack Iran before Jan. 31. The odds of the attack were as low as 16% on the website, but after social media posts pointed to the account’s bets, the odds shot up.
For the time being, Israeli authorities have decided not to open a formal investigation, Kan News reported.
The Polymarket account, originally named “RicoSauve666,” recently changed its name to “Rundeep,” apparently due to unwanted attention from social media, which spotlighted its “shockingly consistent outcomes,” the Post reported.
Days after joining the betting site in June 2025, Rundeep successfully bet on four outcomes connected to Israel’s “Operation Rising Lion,” its 12-day war on Iran last year, including the date Israel would attack, Kan News reported.
It has earned more than $154,219 betting exclusively on Israeli and U.S. military actions, the Post said.
