In another boost to his re-election chances, and perhaps a future presidential campaign, a poll of registered Pennsylvania voters released Thursday gave Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro a two-to-one advantage over his Republican opponent, state treasurer Stacy Garrity.
In the Franklin & Marshall College poll, Shapiro led Garrity, 50% to 25%. That was statistically unchanged from Shapiro’s 50% to 28% advantage in June, meaning Garrity has failed to gain any ground in the contest.
Berwood Yost, who directs the F&M Poll and the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College, told JNS that the large number of undecided voters could indicate that the race will tighten by Election Day.
Even so, it is the second survey this week showing Shapiro with a double-digit edge over Garrity. In a New York Times-Siena College-Philadelphia Inquirer poll, he led Garrity among likely voters, 55% to 39%.
In the Times poll, 47% of likely voters said Shapiro, who is Jewish, had the right position on Israel. He has defended Israel’s right to defend itself, while supporting a two-state solution and lobbing missives at Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The F&M survey did not ask about Israel or the Middle East.
Yost said Israel was not on the minds of Pennsylvania voters.
“The thing that seems to really be dominating people’s thoughts at the moment is the economy and their personal financial circumstances,” Yost told JNS. “While that question about Israel may be something that is important in a Democratic primary, at the moment, when we’re talking about voters at large, I think it’s well down their list of cares.”
Shapiro is mentioned as a potential 2028 Democratic presidential candidate, and his ability to win big in the most populous swing state and a likely must-win for whoever the party nominees for the White House provides a powerful argument for his candidacy should he vie for national office.
“If he’s able to win by a large margin, and if he’s able to bring along down-ballot candidates with him, I certainly think it strengthens the argument that he’s able to win and win convincingly in perhaps the most important swing state in the nation,” Yost told JNS.
“I don’t know that it helps him get the nomination or helps him win should he run, but I think it does make the case for him that it bolsters his resume,” Yost said.
Among Pennsylvania voters, 47% said that he was doing an excellent or good job, the same percentage as those who rated his tenure in office as fair or poor. That’s unchanged from the March poll.
U.S. President Donald Trump, who carried the state twice en route to the presidency, had a job approval rating of only 27%, with 73% disapproving. That’s also similar to his March numbers.
Shapiro’s approval rating among white voters without college degrees, a key element of Trump’s coalition, is 10 points higher than the president’s, 41% to 31%.
“One of the things that Democrats have been talking about, actually since Trump was first elected, was how do they win back white working-class rural voters in particular,” Yost told JNS.
“This suggests in a way that Shapiro was able to reach those voters,” he said. “So this is just another sign that he has some appeal to voters that Democrats are looking to reach.”
The poll of 501 registered voters was conducted Aug. 17-23 and had a margin of error of plus-or-minus 5.5 percentage points.
