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Erfan Fard

Erfan Fard is a counter-terrorism analyst and Middle East Studies researcher based in Washington, D.C.

Washington’s indecision and strategic confusion are forcing CENTCOM—and, more broadly, the CIA—to rethink its approach to the Islamic regime.
Perhaps the strategic convergence between the Mossad and the CIA will encourage the U.S. president and his administration to act with greater resolve against Tehran.
If the trajectory of U.S. strikes continues, the conflict will increasingly evolve into a campaign of strategic attrition until one side concedes.
Tehran’s growing reliance on public threats, revenge rhetoric and carefully orchestrated displays of revolutionary unity reveals something far more significant than military defiance.
Two images side by side: a republic marking a quarter-millennium of constitutional liberty and a regime defined by the burial of the ruler around whom its political order was built.
And the Islamic Republic is no longer merely a nuclear problem.
The Islamic regime’s nuclear ambitions, proxy network and ideological structure remain intact, despite Washington’s claims of success.
The Islamic Republic remains dangerous, but danger should not be mistaken for strength.
Quiet regional coordination on cyber defense, maritime security, financial tracking, proxy disruption and intelligence-sharing is producing the foundations of a new Middle Eastern security architecture.
Misreading the regime as a stable status quo actor, rather than a cornered regime, could become one of the most consequential strategic mistakes in the years ahead.
In practice, the rise of such a notorious, lethal figure underscores that these enforcers exist for one purpose alone: the preservation of the regime.
Waves of unemployment, poverty, repression and are forming a mass of the dispossessed and the enraged, who can challenge the foundations of the government amid turbulence and chaos.