A new poll from the Siena Research Institute suggests that the Republican candidate for New York state governor, Bruce Blakeman, is slowly reducing the gap between him and Gov. Kathy Hochul, a Democrat.
Election Day, Nov. 3, is about six weeks away.
The September poll of likely voters shows a nine-point spread between the two candidates—up from 10 points in Siena’s August poll and far closer than the Republican candidate was to Hochul at this point in the last election cycle, when Lee Zeldin trailed by 17 points.
The new poll shows Hochul with 50% of likely voters to Blakeman’s 41%.
Siena’s August poll found that 49% of voters interviewed said that they would vote for Hochul, compared to 39% planning to vote for Blakeman, the Nassau County executive.
Siena pollster Steven Greenberg told JNS that “it’s interesting and geeky that nothing moved a lot.”
“The Hochul-Blakeman horserace went up one point in the Republican direction,” he said.
Blakeman crowed about the small shift to JNS.
“All polls continue to show Kathy Hochul’s downward spiral and me closing the gap, as New Yorkers learn more about my plan to cut income taxes by historic margins and slash electric bills in half,” he said.
“Today, our race is in single digits, with one-third of New Yorkers still needing to learn more about me,” Blakeman told JNS. (JNS sought comment from Hochul’s campaign.)
Democrats outnumber Republicans in New York state two to one, according to Greenberg.
The Siena poll also suggests that 66% of likely voters, including 37% of Republicans, think that Hochul will win the election.
New York “voters haven’t elected a Republican governor in 24 years, and there is that two-to-one Democratic enrollment edge, so it may not be surprising that more than one-third of Republicans think Hochul will win, as do 61% of independents” Greenberg stated.
He added that “only 39% of independents currently plan to vote for her.”
Trump has backed Blakeman, calling him “100% MAGA,” but just over half, 51%, of those polled said that Trump’s endorsement of Blakeman is having a negative impact on his campaign.
In contrast, 50% said that New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s endorsement of Hochul is positive for her campaign.
In the new poll, Trump’s favorability rating among likely New York voters decreased, from 38% in August to 34% in September. His job approval rating has also gone downhill, from 37% in August to 35$ in September. Some 62% of those polled currently disapprove of the job Trump is doing as president.
Likely voters across New York state are closely divided on New York City’s mayor.
Mamdani has a 46% to 44% favorability rating, which is little changed from 47% to 44% last month. He remains very popular among Democrats, according to the Siena poll, with 73% supporting him versus 18% who don’t.
Mamdani continues to be favorable to New York City voters by a two-to-one margin, 60% to 31%.
The new poll interviewed 1,144 likely voters between Sept. 11 and 17.
Voters said that the five-year incumbent governor has the “right stuff to be governor” by only 47% to 42%, according to Siena results. Voters are evenly split, 40% to 40%, on whether the five-year Nassau County executive has that “right stuff” himself.
Pluralities said that both Hochul, by 46% to 39%, and Blakeman, 41% to 35%, are not “in touch with average New Yorkers,” according to the poll results.
Voters said that Hochul “gets things done,” 47% to 39%, but were almost evenly split on whether Blakeman does, by 35% to 34%.
The Siena Research Institute is based at Siena University, a private Catholic school near Albany in upstate New York. It is independent and non-partisan and focuses on political, cultural and issue-oriented polling primarily in New York.
Siena runs 10 polls of New York voters each year, Greenberg said.
Some 6% of respondents in the new poll are Jewish. Jewish respondents generally range from 6% to 9% in Siena polls, Greenberg told JNS.
Likely New York voters overwhelmingly (74%) disapproved of Trump renaming Lake Ontario “Lake America,” and 59% opposed the president’s effort to end most mail-in voting. Some 39% supported the latter.
Hochul imposed a one-year moratorium on consideration of new data centers in New York state. When that expires next year, a large majority (63%) of likely voters said that they do not want a data center in their area. A quarter wouldn’t mind having one nearby.
“Three-quarters of Democrats and nearly two-thirds of independents are opposed, while Republicans are closely divided, narrowly supporting data centers in their area, 43% to 41%,” according to Greenberg.
“At least 59% of voters from every region of the state oppose new data centers near them,” he stated.
Blakeman has said that he believes that data centers would benefit the state.
