It is far from clear if Iran’s protesters will succeed in removing the despised tyranny that has imprisoned them since 1979. But the national movement that started at the end of December has undoubtedly created the biggest threat to the ayatollahs since the uprising three years ago.
Starting with strikes and shop closures in Tehran’s historic Grand Bazaar, the protest movement has spread nationwide, leading to spontaneous rallies and street demonstrations in every one of Iran’s 31 provinces. Many have called for the downfall of the Islamic Republic and a restoration of human rights.
The security forces have responded, as they always do, with lethal force against the protesters, causing more than 2,500 deaths, according to the latest estimates. However, some reports suggest that this figure could now be in the thousands, with many hospitals overflowing with dead and mutilated bodies. The level of savagery is truly hard to behold.
We have been here before.
In 2022, a 22-year-old Kurdish-Iranian girl, Mahsa Amini, was arrested, tortured and killed by the thugs of the “morality police” for allegedly violating the country’s hijab law. It led to nationwide protests with a guiding theme of “Woman, Life, Freedom” and an intense crackdown that claimed more than 500 lives. But ultimately, the regime prevailed. The Iranian democracy uprising of 2019-20 was far deadlier, costing the lives of some 1,500 Iranian citizens, as again, the government responded with draconian and ruthless efficiency.
Still, the Iranian people are not backing down. That was also the overwhelming sentiment in London as supporters of Reza Pahlavi, son of the former Shah, called on the government of the United Kingdom to support the uprising. Thousands marched on Jan. 12—carrying Persian, American and Israeli flags—demanding regime change in Iran. Two days earlier, a marcher scaled the city’s Iranian embassy, replacing the flag of the regime with that of the Persian monarchy.
If these defiant Iranian protests continue despite the repression, there may be two key reasons. The first is the sheer volume of grievances sustaining this wave of protest. The short-term trigger is an economic crisis marked by rapidly increasing inflation (42.2% in December) that has pushed up the cost of food, as well as health and medical goods, coupled with a water crisis, repeated electricity and gas disruptions, and the collapse of the rial against the dollar.
This is an economic crisis compounded by appalling policy decisions over many years. Due to Iran’s intransigence over its nuclear program, the United Nations reimposed snapback sanctions on Iran in September, freezing Iranian assets abroad, halting arms transactions with Tehran and imposing further penalties.
To this, one must add the impact of the 12-day war with Israel last June, which, according to one senior analyst, cost Iran up to $35 billion, equivalent to more than 9% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product. The cost of funding its terror proxies—ranging from Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon to Bashar Assad in Syria and the Houthis in Yemen—has also run into the billions of dollars each year, triggering the current slogan “Not Gaza, not Lebanon, my life is for Iran.”
The second difference is the identity of Iran’s current chief adversary: U.S. President Donald Trump. In a post on Truth Social, the president wrote: “If Iran shots [sic] and violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue.”
This direct threat to intervene represents a sharp contrast with the policies of former presidents Joe Biden and Barack Obama. Their feckless approaches saw exchanges of words, limited sanctions and moral posturing during Iran’s protests, all to no effect. Khamenei knew that the United States would offer the opposition little more than token moral support.
Trump is an unpredictable figure, and the exact trajectory of his Middle East policy remains a matter of speculation. But he has already shown a willingness to use force against Iran in “Operation Midnight Hammer,” using the full might of the American air force to attack the Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan nuclear sites. Trump recently warned that any restoration of the country’s nuclear ambitions could see another show of force by the United States and Israel.
Further, the stunning and audacious capture of Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces has sent shivers down the spine of the West’s enemies, including China, Russia and Iran. By removing him, it is safe to say that the leaders of those nations will not be sleeping too easily right now. In particular, the ayatollahs may feel that they are living on borrowed time.
Trump should continue to focus on undermining and ultimately helping to bring down the Islamic Republic of Iran. If this empire of terror can be brought to its knees, if the aging ayatollahs can be forced to relinquish power and if a democratic movement can triumph in their place, it will surely be one of the greatest moments of the 21st century. For the modern Middle East, it will feel like the Berlin Wall collapsing.
It will signal that the heart of Shi’ite religious extremism has been toppled by the will of the Iranian people. It will deal a mortal blow to the axis of proxy terrorists, led by Hezbollah, that feed off Tehran’s funding and arms supply. It will deal a potentially lethal blow to Hamas in Gaza, creating momentum for reconstruction and renewal in the war-torn coastal enclave. Above all, it will unleash the creative genius of the Iranian people, who have been shackled by fanatical fundamentalists for far too long.
As for other Western leaders, they should follow Trump’s lead and express unequivocal support for the Iranian protesters. As we are often told, silence is “complicity,” and appeasement is weakness. Too much of the West is silent in the face of the regime’s brutality, while too many governments are indifferent or committed to the Iranian theocracy.
Millions of brave Iranians are risking their lives for freedom so they can finally end the nightmare of living under a clerical tyranny. We must stand with them.
