As the war between Russia and Ukraine enters into its fourth year with nearly a million casualties, drastic action is required to end it.
A lot can be learned from former U.S. President Theodore Roosevelt, whose motto was “speak softly and carry a big stick—you will go far.”
It was this “big stick” approach to foreign policy that in 1905 led to a peace deal between Russia and Japan, ending the bloody “Russo-Japanese War.”
Roosevelt used economic incentives to convince Russia to end the war. Russia, which started the war, conceded territory to Japan but did not have to indemnify Japan for the war as part of the peace agreement. Known as the Treaty of Portsmouth, the agreement led to Roosevelt receiving a Nobel Peace Prize in 1906.
I believe that Roosevelt saved my grandfather’s life, as he was fighting for the Russians against Japan during the war. As a Jewish soldier, my grandfather was automatically sent to the front lines. Had the war not ended when it did, he would likely have been killed in battle.
Interestingly, my grandfather was from a town not far from Kyiv, today the capital city of Ukraine. At that time, Ukraine was part of Russia.
Now, more than 100 years later, President Donald Trump has his work cut out for him as he seeks to make peace between Russia and Ukraine. And now, as then, economics has a vital role to play.
Trump has decided that the approach by the Biden administration has failed, and so he is flipping the script. He wants Ukraine to pay America back for the billions it provided in weaponry via a deal on rare earth elements like titanium, lithium, oil and natural gas that are found in the country. Although security guarantees were not stated explicitly, they were implied by the very nature of the agreement.
This arrangement is part of Trump’s “big stick” approach to foreign policy. So far, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has not accepted the arrangement. But he has no other choice.
Meanwhile, Russia is in dire economic straits, as it was after the Russo-Japanese War. Trump will capitalize on that fact, and the economic sanctions placed on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine can serve as major leverage. The fact that they are finally sitting down to discuss it all is a major accomplishment.
