OpinionU.S. News

What impact will Orthodox Jews have on the election?

Their numbers are small, and because of where they are clustered, their impact on a presidential election will be nil.

U.S. voter at a ballot box. Credit: Yamu_Jay/Pixabay.
U.S. voter at a ballot box. Credit: Yamu_Jay/Pixabay.
Mitchell Bard
Mitchell Bard
Mitchell Bard is a foreign-policy analyst and an authority on U.S.-Israel relations who has written and edited 22 books, including The Arab Lobby, Death to the Infidels: Radical Islam’s War Against the Jews and After Anatevka: Tevye in Palestine.

Since Vice President Kamala Harris replaced President Joe Biden as the Democratic candidate for president, most of the media attention has been on Arab Americans in Michigan and the other larger, critical constituencies of the party elsewhere, such as blacks and Hispanics. The discussion of the Jewish vote has focused on the small but potentially significant shift from Harris to former President Donald Trump. But who are the Jewish Trump voters, and will they make a difference?

The answer will not surprise people closely following the politics. It is the Orthodox community where the most movement towards the Republican Party is evident, but it’s important to recognize the distinctions between Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) and Modern Orthodox Jews. Despite this shift, their overall influence on the presidential election may be limited, although they could sway down-ballot races, particularly in states like New York.

Let’s focus on the presidential race.

First, just how many voters are we talking about?

All the following data is approximate but provides insight into the political landscape. Some of it comes from the most recent survey on Jewish voters, which was done by the Manhattan Institute (Oct. 5-9), and others come from the Pew Research Center, the Jewish Democratic Council of America and Chip50; most of the information on the Orthodox was published by Nishma Research.

The American Jewish population stands at approximately 7.5 million, with about 8%—or 600,000—identifying as Orthodox. This small segment is largely responsible for the Republican shift, with Pew Research indicating that the Orthodox’s identification with the GOP surged from 57% to 75% between 2013 and 2020. Support for the Democratic Party increased among Conservative and Reform Jews, with the latter at 80%. Even accounting for the Orthodox, the overall Jewish commitment to the Democrats increased from 70% to 71%.

Like the rest of the community, Orthodox Jews are not monolithic. The Nishma study found:

• Two-thirds are Haredi (ultra-Orthodox), one-third Modern Orthodox.

• Most Modern Orthodox Jews (55%) disapprove of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s job performance, while less than 20% of ultra-Orthodox Jews do.

• Most Modern Orthodox Jews (60%) disapproved of Trump’s job performance as president, while only 12% of Haredi Jews did.

• Among Modern Orthodox Jews, two-thirds approve of Trump’s policies on Israel, while 86% of Haredi Jews do.

• Half of Modern Orthodox Jews and 85% of Haredi Jews hold an unfavorable view of Harris.

Geographically, the impact of Jewish voters is concentrated in a few key states. Notably, 84% of Jews reside in just 12 states that hold a total of 271 electoral votes—one more than needed to win the presidency. However, the concentration (two-thirds) in predominantly blue states means their influence can be diluted. In swing states, where only 13% live (nearly half of those in Pennsylvania), the Orthodox community’s growing Republican alignment is unlikely to affect the electoral outcome.

The average for four polls of Jewish voters shows Harris beating Trump by an average of 65% to 30%. This would be the same as Trump’s total in 2020, though Harris would be three points below Biden’s total, which would be the worst showing for a Democrat since Michael Dukakis lost in 1988. No Democrat has won with less than 68% of the Jewish vote.

Orthodox Jewish Voting Preferences
Chart on Orthodox Jewish Voter Preferences. Credit: Courtesy.

As seen in the table above, Modern Orthodox Jews would favor Harris 55% to 45% while the Ultra-Orthodox are all in for Trump (93% to 7%). If, as Pew reported, Trump got 75% of the Orthodox vote in 2020, that would be about 450,000 votes. This suggests that Trump has not picked up many new votes from the Orthodox community.

We don’t know how many Orthodox Jews live in each of the swing states, but Pennsylvania is the only one with a sizeable Orthodox population. Except for perhaps Florida, which has been leaning Republican, Orthodox Jews becoming more Republican will have little impact on the election because most are concentrated in reliably Democratic states like New York, New Jersey, California and Maryland.

The bottom line is that when you hear about Jews shifting towards the Republican Party, the numbers are small and almost entirely within the Orthodox community. Because of where they are clustered, their impact on a presidential election will be nil. The bad news for the Harris campaign is that if she is only getting 65% of the Jewish vote, she has alienated a significant number of non-Orthodox Jews who, as I illustrated in an earlier column, could make a difference.

The opinions and facts presented in this article are those of the author, and neither JNS nor its partners assume any responsibility for them.
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