A mutual defense pact signed on Aug. 7 by Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signifies the rise of a Sunni bloc that could adopt new postures toward both Iran and Israel, observers in Israel told JNS in recent days.
Meir Ben-Shabbat, the chairman of the Misgav Institute for National Security who is a former Israeli national security adviser and head of the National Security Council, said the newly signed Mecca Joint Defense Agreement “symbolizes several things.”
These include “the rise of a strong central Sunni axis that sees itself as capable of serving as a counterweight to other regional forces; an understanding among the states of this axis that the Iranian threat is apparently not expected to disappear in the foreseeable future and requires preparation for scenarios of its development; a desire to create an arrangement that is not dependent on the United States and bypasses Israel, an arrangement that can of course realize political ambitions and cross-continental economic partnerships and is not purely security-related.”
Ben-Shabbat stressed the expansion of Turkish influence reflected in the Mecca pact as part of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s regional aspirations. He also noted a striking absence from the new grouping: the United Arab Emirates.
The UAE “did not join this arrangement,” Ben-Shabbat noted.
The former national security adviser said Israel’s response should focus on strengthening its own partnerships.
“Alongside efforts against Iran and its proxies, in the face of this emerging step, Israel needs to continue and advance its cooperation with India and the Emirates in parallel with cooperation with the eastern Mediterranean states, and of course be alert to Erdogan’s conduct in the arenas close to us,” he said.
Dr. Brandon Friedman, director of research at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University, told JNS that the pact reflects a shared perception among its three signatories that “both Israel and Iran are potentially destabilizing threats” to them.
“The Pakistan-Saudi defense pact was signed in the immediate aftermath of Israel’s attack on Doha last September 2025,” Friedman said, adding that direct Iranian strikes on two of the three signatories during the current war reinforced the logic behind expanding that arrangement.
“Both Turkey and Saudi Arabia have been attacked by Iran during the current war,” Friedman noted.
Why Egypt stayed out
Egypt’s absence from the pact, despite Turkish invitations, stems from the binding mutual-defense clause clashing with Cairo’s existing web of relationships, Friedman assessed.
“Egypt is uncomfortable with the NATO-like binding element of the pact that demands it would respond to an attack on the other members,” he said.
“This would put it in an untenable position regarding its relationship with UAE, a crucial investor in its economy, which has had disputes with Saudi Arabia, and potentially also regarding its peace treaty with Israel,” Friedman said, adding that Cairo’s economic ties elsewhere compound the problem.
“India is also a major trade and economic partner for Egypt, and this binding defense pact would create problems in the event of renewed India-Pakistan hostilities,” he said.
A NATO-like commitment
The Mecca Joint Defense Agreement was formally signed on Aug. 7, 2026, by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.
According to an Aug. 7 Reuters report, the pact declares that “an armed attack against any of the three would be regarded as an attack on all.” Turkish Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz reportedly said the agreement “was not aimed at any specific country,” while a Turkish official described it as purely defensive and said it did not supersede existing agreements with other states.
The pact builds on the earlier Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement signed between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia on Sept. 17, 2025. Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said on Aug. 9 that the pact was “purely defensive in nature” and remained open to other countries willing to uphold its principles, according to the Associated Press.
