Amid reports that Israel may now prefer to see the blockade on Iran remain in place rather than pursue renewed military action, observers in Israel have told JNS in recent days that this tactic would require American patience to exceed Iranian stamina.
Brig. Gen. (res.) Dr. Sasson Haddad, a former financial adviser to the IDF chief of staff and ex-head of the Budget Division at the Defense Ministry, told JNS that after examining the question of who would break economically first, the U.S. or Iran, “my assessment was that Iran’s political staying power is longer.”
To break Iran, he argued, “you need to bring about a situation where the regime itself faces an existential crisis. Iran’s internal economy is shattered, but the regime is far from that. The regime, as I understand it, is made up of three to four million people who live off the state, including the Revolutionary Guards, the broader institutions of government, and their families.”
Haddad said an economic siege can only work if it reaches that group, and current sanctions fall short. “Economic strangulation can help if it’s effective against that group. The problem is that even after the sanctions, the blockade and so on, the net cash flow to this group is still, in my assessment, positive when weighed against its full range of income sources: oil, the shadow fleet, crypto, smuggling, overland trade, assets and more,” Haddad said. He added that closing that gap requires far more than partial measures. “For a blockade to be effective, full closure is required, which the U.S. is trying to do through sanctions against crypto, along with preventing outside assistance. In the world we live in, this is an extremely complicated matter.”
He said the economic pain radiating outward from the blockade, rather than the pressure on Iran itself, is what ultimately limits how long the policy can be sustained. “The economic damage that spreads globally, mainly to the energy market but from there to everything, is causing a lack of enthusiasm for global support of this move, at least among most countries, and even in the U.S. support for Trump is, as I understand it, declining, with midterm elections approaching,” Haddad said. He added that the approach is nonetheless Israel’s preference for now. “From Israel’s perspective, the blockade looks far more attractive than war for many reasons, and in any case, a return to direct confrontation is a matter of time, so weakening the enemy is certainly a welcome move.”
Haddad said Saudi Arabia has its own reasons to quietly favor letting the diplomatic track run as long as possible. “It buys them time to recover, to build overland alternatives for transit, to build political alternatives such as coordination with Egypt and Pakistan, and perhaps to strengthen ties with China, to reinforce site defenses and to acquire interceptors. I think they’re hoping that the longer such a political process continues, the more they will recover, and perhaps the Iranian regime will also weaken internally,” he said.
Feasible but politically fragile
Dr. Yossi Mansharof, an expert on Iran and Shi’ite political Islam at the Misgav Institute for National Security and a lecturer at the University of Haifa’s School of Political Sciences, told JNS that a blockade strategy would indeed align well with Israel’s interests, adding that the approach is militarily feasible but politically fragile over time.
“If this is indeed the chosen strategy, it can only be effective if it receives sustained American support and cooperation from additional partners. Militarily, the U.S. and its allies have the capacity to enforce significant naval pressure on Iran over time, especially at the choke points of maritime trade routes. However, in my assessment, the central challenge is not military but political and economic,” Mansharof said. The real constraint is endurance, not force, he said.
“The question is not whether such a blockade can be sustained for weeks or months, where the answer is most likely yes, but whether the international political consensus required for it can be preserved over an extended period. Ultimately, the blockade’s durability will be determined less by military capabilities and more by the political willingness of the U.S. and its allies to bear its costs and withstand the mounting international pressure,” he said.
Mansharof said Saudi Arabia’s spare oil production capacity makes it central to whether the blockade can hold without triggering a global energy shock.
“Saudi Arabia holds surplus oil production capacity that allows it to increase output if Iranian exports continue to be disrupted. This capability helps moderate shocks in the global energy market and makes it easier for the U.S. and its allies to maintain pressure on Iran without causing a sharp rise in oil prices,” he said, adding that Riyadh’s willingness to compensate for lost Iranian supply is central to the strategy’s viability.
“Saudi Arabia has never dared to raise its head against Iran, but rather hoped the U.S. would do the job for it,” Mansharof said, pointing to the September 2019 strikes on the Saudi Abqaiq and Khurais oil facilities, attributed to Iran, which temporarily knocked out roughly half of Saudi oil output. He said that Riyadh also remembers years of attacks by Tehran’s since-defunct Saudi proxy “Hezbollah al-Hejaz,” a Shi’ite terrorist group that operated in the kingdom and targeted Saudi energy sites and interests worldwide between 1987 and 1996.
Mansharof said a blockade would let Israel degrade Iran’s power without paying the costs of renewed war. “A prolonged blockade continues to erode Iran’s economy, reduces the regime’s oil revenue and shrinks the resources available to it for rebuilding military capabilities, advancing its nuclear program and financing its regional proxies, all without the costs and risks involved in another military campaign for Israel,” he said. He added that the pressure would compound against Iran. “Following a round of fighting, Iran needs time to rebuild its air defense array, military infrastructure and missile industry. Sustained economic pressure makes this reconstruction process harder and extends the period of its relative weakness,” Mansharof said.
The blockade debate unfolded against a backdrop of intensifying diplomatic and military activity around the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman held a phone call with President Donald Trump on Aug. 1, in which he “emphasized the necessity of prioritizing dialogue to reduce tensions,” according to the Saudi Press Agency, cited by Arab News.
