The Islamic Republic of Iran’s 180-degree turn regarding the Trump administration was executed by Iran’s ayatollahs with acrobatic finesse and managed to raise some eyebrows.
Its leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had stated that Iran will not be negotiating with “bullies,” alluding to President Donald Trump’s public commitment to stop Iran’s nuclear pursuit. Yet, less than a month later, Iranian representatives came to the table.
U.S. Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff held talks with an Iranian delegation in Oman and Rome. It included Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who made a surprising counteroffer to the United States to construct 19 new nuclear-power plants in Iran. The war drums suddenly morphed into potential business opportunities.
It seems that Iran concluded that for Trump, confrontation might simply mean an invitation to negotiate.
Since taking office for the second time, Trump has indicated that he would take action on Iran. “Something’s going to happen very soon,” Trump threatened at one point, waving the big stick in the form of a potential military strike on the nuclear facilities, saying this could “solve the problem.” He also reinstated the “maximum pressure” campaign that was a hallmark of his first term in office, moved B-2 Stealth Bomber assets to the region and sent a warning letter to Iran.
However, alongside the stick, Trump offered an olive branch. “I would much prefer a deal than bombs being dropped,” he said on multiple occasions, giving negotiations a chance. Much like his confrontation in other arenas—be it eye-popping tariffs on some100 countries, taking on China, making threats to invade the Panama Canal and Greenland, flirting with the notion of annexing Canada or announcing his intent to take over the Gaza Strip—the use of shock and threats could be simply a Trump foreign-policy tool.
This is the point when Iran found clarity in the storm, turned the switch and devised an all-out gaslighting strategy—leveraging its bazaar merchants’ world-famous haggling skills. Rather than pointlessly confronting the president, its leaders are trying to sweet-talk the Trump administration into favoring a 2015-style bad deal over military action. Such an agreement could potentially allow the administration to showcase a diplomatic achievement, further cementing the president’s reputation as a dealmaker. However, there is no evidence that the Iranians will be ready to compromise for more than the previous deal.
Worse still, Iran could be simply leveraging Father Time, conducting negotiations publicly while privately continuing their campaign to build a bomb. This delay tactic could prove beneficial for the Islamic Republic and deadly for the West.
Tehran’s playbook includes three main vectors. First, they come to the table. Unlike Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who angered the administration after openly confronting Trump on his willingness to negotiate with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Tehran decided to take a deep breath and make a façade of goodwill.
“The obstacle has been previous U.S. administrations”, said Araghchi, distancing himself from criticism against Trump and accusing his political opponents. Khamenei, for his part, played poker face, shrugging off this endeavor as “one of the many missions carried out by the foreign ministry,” as if it were yet another day at the embassy.
Next, Iran realized that in 2025, message-masters mold the mandate.
Therefore, the country is attempting what the Iranian opposition media, Iran International, call “managing the narrative.” Araghchi’s counterproposal to construct American nuclear power plants in Iran with “tens of billions of dollars in potential contracts” plays right into that narrative. While disinformation could be frowned upon as an unappealing term in today’s day and age in the Republican Party, malicious “narrative engineering” should certainly summon attention.
Finally, Iran realized that its nemesis—Israel—is its main roadblock, uncovering its true face and publicly calling out the Islamic Republic’s open commitment to destroy the Jewish state. Any perceived daylight between Washington and Jerusalem would therefore constitute a national security asset for Tehran. It is not surprising, then, that the Iranian Foreign Ministry’s spokesperson accused Israel of aiming to “disrupt and derail the diplomatic process.”
For its part, the Trump administration isn’t necessarily rushing into buying Iran’s charm offensive. Trump has made it crystal clear that he does not seek endless negotiations nor a facade of a deal but the “total dismantlement” of Iran’s nuclear program. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reiterated a similar assertive message. Trump has also denied having prevented Israel from attacking Iran and left the door open for green-lighting such a strike or even fully getting on board. He openly goes after Iran’s religious fanaticism, bearing in mind Iran’s attempt on his life.
Pre-emptive military action does remain on the table as Trump seeks to prevent Iran from acquiring the world’s deadliest weapons of mass destruction. It seems that he simply prefers to offer Iran the easy way first, before choosing the hard way.
Iranian officials, for their part, cannot help but conceal the diametrically opposed objectives for these talks. While Trump openly states that Iran cannot have nuclear weapons, top leaders in Tehran reject any foreign intervention in their nuclear pursuits, telling an American news media that any talks on their nuclear and missile projects are “off-limits.”
Trump has no illusions about Iran and its malign activity in the region and around the world. The regime has been steadily undermining stability in the Middle East; launching wars across the region; blocking trade routes; creating proxy armies; toppling regimes; and sending death squads around Europe and the United States. A nuclear Iran could unleash the regime’s efforts to an entirely new level and derail the Israeli-Saudi peace talks that Trump badly needs as his signature achievement. Trump is fully aware that an Islamic Regime equipped with nuclear weapons poses a clear and direct threat not just to Israel, but to the U.S. national security interests.
As the time frame for a deal is narrowing, Israel and the United States are also mulling a strike. Iran’s current vulnerability makes this option very much viable, as does the significantly decimated state of its proxy armies.
The world’s greatest powers are playing a chess game. They aim to deny Iran a nuclear weapon, which is paramount to advancing America’s interest (and limiting Russia and China) in stabilizing the Mideast and moving to a new era of interest-based interconnectivity, common sense and peace through strength.