Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his coalition appear to maintain a lead in the polls, with a new survey suggesting that the prime minister’s Likud Party would garner 28 Knesset seats in early elections.
The Channel 14 survey, conducted by Direct Polls and released on Thursday, indicates that Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition would win 58 out of 120 seats, one more than the prior Channel 14 poll suggested on July 11.
The anti-Netanyahu bloc, led by National Unity Party leader Benny Gantz, is poised to get 52 mandates, down one from last week’s poll, and Arab parties would win a combined 10 seats, per Direct Polls.
According to the survey, the breakdown of mandates would be as follows:
Right-wing bloc:
Likud – 28 (+4)
Shas – 10
Otzma Yehudit – 8 (-1)
United Torah Judaism – 8
Religious Zionism – 4 (-2)
Total: 58 mandates
Left-wing bloc:
National Unity Party – 16
Israel Beiteinu – 13 (-1)
Yesh Atid – 12 (-1)
The Democrats (formerly Labor and Meretz) – 11 (+1)
Total: 52 mandates
Arab parties:
Ra’am (United Arab List) – 6
Hadash-Ta’al – 4
Total: 10 mandates
Asked who is best suited to serve as the Jewish state’s prime minister, 48% told Direct Polls it felt Netanyahu was the right man for the job, while 28% cited Gantz and 24% said neither is suitable.
When choosing between Netanyahu and Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid, 49% said Netanyahu was best suited to lead, and 30% said Lapid and 21% said both were unsuitable.
The survey was conducted on July 18 among a representative sample of 779 adults in Israel, with a 4.0% margin of error and a plus-or-minus 95% probability. Direct Polls predicted the results of the most recent election.
The next Israeli national vote is scheduled for 2026, unless the Likud-led government falls and early elections are called.
While 60% of Israelis is dissatisfied with the government’s handling of the ongoing conflicts on the country’s southern and northern borders, the majority believes that early elections would hurt the war effort, according to a poll conducted by Direct Polls for JNS earlier this month.
Fifty-four percent of respondents said that a national vote before the end of the wars with Hamas and Hezbollah would “hurt” (9%) or be “very harmful” (45%) to Israel’s deterrence in the face of ongoing threats.
