Iran’s situation is chaotic, critical and dangerously fragile. The country has fallen into darkness—an imposed silence that cannot be denied—and the ruling establishment is in a state of naked weakness and internal erosion.
After the bloody suppression of protests in January, and in the shadow of tensions and confrontation with the United States and Israel, there is no longer any trace of a reliable order or rule of law in Iranian society. What remains is an unvarnished image of a structure in the process of collapse.
A regime that—by shutting down the internet nationwide—seeks to bury the truth so that the people and families of the victims cannot share images and videos of one of the most horrific massacres of the 21st century with the world. This blackout has not only suffocated the public sphere but has also exposed the regime’s constant obsession with controlling the narrative.
Within just 48 hours, the apparatus of repression attempted to extinguish the protests on a shocking scale. And then, by holding staged trials in the Islamic Republic’s thuggish courts, sentenced hundreds of people to execution on fabricated charges—an ultimately desperate attempt to put out flames that are still alive beneath the ashes and continue to flare.
Although the atmosphere of censorship and suffocation is unprecedentedly heavy, the people, with great difficulty and at every opportunity, find ways to access information and news. A regime devoid of legitimacy is not accepted by society, has no justification in argument, and its discourse has reached a dead end; thus, it has taken refuge in censorship. At the same time, the disruption of internet access has deprived people of the ability to show the depth of the catastrophe that has cast its shadow over the land and society.
Long-term stability in Iran resembles a delusion. Waves of unemployment, poverty, repression and war, compounded by a lack of water, are gradually forming a mass of the dispossessed and the enraged, who can challenge the foundations of the government amid turbulence and chaos.
One of the direct consequences of the internet shutdown was the unemployment of thousands whose livelihoods depended on the online economy. Since January, declining employment, widespread joblessness, market stagnation, waves of runaway inflation, and the shutdown of industries and production have pushed Iran’s economic condition into a deeper crisis than before.
The authorities, at enormous cost, promote a specific political message across social media and seek by any means to control the narrative—a form of organized media operation in which thousands of fake accounts simultaneously reproduce and amplify a single message.
If in the 20th century the Shi’ite clerical establishment used tools such as terrorism, street demonstrations, shroud-wearing, mosque pulpits and the machinery of issuing fatwas (“religious decrees”) to impose its will, today it pursues the same function through a propaganda machine and thousands of social-media accounts. These represent modern tools serving the same old logic of influence and manipulation of minds.
Alongside this, every night in the streets, with loud noise and so-called “Islam parties,” they stage a display of power—a performance more symbolic than rational, akin to theatrical religious gatherings. For this regime, propaganda and deception are not merely tools but a vital necessity, and at times more important than reality itself. Relying on a limited presence of supporters, they reflect the same image in their media apparatus and present it as a sign of legitimacy.
Although the political will of the Iranian people receives little attention in global media, in reality, Iranian society seeks regime change—a reality for which the heavy price of approximately 45,000 lives has been paid. The double-edged sword of war, executions and repression may have given the regime a temporary breathing space, but this tense and unstable condition cannot ultimately guarantee its survival.
At the same time, the reaction of parts of society to news of the killing of military and security officials is often one of satisfaction—a sign of the deep rift between the ruling establishment and the people. The dominant mindset within Iranian society is defined, above all, by hatred and aversion toward the structure of power. A regime that, by some estimates, may have around 5% support—support that in many cases is tied more to financial and ideological interests than to genuine public belief. If such loyalty truly exists, a simple question remains: Why is the internet not open?
At a deeper level, this government is seen by many Iranians as being in opposition to national identity. In such a context, patriotism has become one of the few remaining assets of society, a determining force that plays a role in resistance against religious extremism and the structures built upon it. In this path, external developments and the actions of some international actors, including the United States and Israel, have also indirectly contributed to the removal of certain obstacles.
During the recent conflict, according to official institutions such as the Foundation of Martyrs, an estimated 2,000 military and security personnel have been killed. However, in the eyes of a segment of society, there is no clear distinction between institutions such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Basij militia, the army and other military forces; all are seen as components of a single structure whose primary mission is to preserve the survival of the ruling system.
Ultimately, this system has not fallen; it has merely been delayed. What is called “government” today is, more than anything, a temporary condition on the edge of decline, not a sign of stability. This regime may still be alive, but it is not legitimate. It may possess the instruments of power, but it no longer controls a society that is boiling from within.
The roots of this situation must be sought in years of adventurism, delusion and the destructive thinking of rulers who have replaced the logic of survival with the logic of destruction—a structure akin to a closed cult that, rather than thinking about the future, seeks to impose its will until the very last moment. In such a framework, even a scorched-earth scenario is not far-fetched; it is as if they prefer to leave behind a worn-out and ruined country before their collapse.
A society that has reached this level of awareness and accumulated anger will ultimately find its path. Imposed silence does not endure, and this situation, however prolonged and costly, will not last.
