“We understand that you need to respond against Hezbollah and increase the temperature—but leave room for a diplomatic solution.”
This was the message conveyed in recent days by U.S. officials to their Israeli counterparts in a series of phone calls, according to sources with knowledge of the conversations.
“We know you need to go up the ladder when it comes to the question what kind of response is needed here—but don’t go all the way up. Don’t lead to a full-scale war,” Jeffrey Feltman, former U.S. ambassador to Lebanon, told JNS.
“I think that for Iran to join in right now would be a U.S. red line. At the same time, I suspect the U.S. would not be very supportive of an Israeli ground incursion,” continued Feltman, who was also a former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs.
“The U.S. interest inside Lebanon is to try to find some way to, as hard as it is, to compete with the influence that Iran and Hezbollah have, and the overall American goal would be to try to have a stable country that’s not beholden to them,” he added.
Since Hamas’s Oct. 7 massacre, the United States has feared a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah—during an election year—that would drag in American forces.
But on Oct. 8, Hezbollah opened fire on Israel.
“The U.S. backing [for Israel] has been surprisingly good. Certainly, compared to previous administrations,” said Eyal Hulata, a former Israeli national security adviser and a senior fellow at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
“We have received ammunition, budgets and everything for a year—and this continues to happen, even two months before the elections—so it is unusual,” he told JNS.
“And the war here does not sit well with the Americans, politically. From this point of view, Israel needs to credit Biden personally with unprecedented backing,” he added.
Senior White House envoy Amos Hochstein, the chief negotiator between Israel and Lebanon, has tried to produce a diplomatic solution that will move Hezbollah forces away from the Israeli border. Over the last few weeks, as a hostage deal in Gaza drifts further and further away, this scenario has become less likely.
This had led Israeli officials to turn their attention toward Hezbollah, and finally, after 11 months, include the return of residents to the north as one of the country’s official war goals.
One of the U.S. demands was “not to go after the civilian infrastructure of the Lebanese government,” according to a diplomatic source. “Israel’s response was “we cannot commit to anything,” the source told JNS.
Meanwhile, in Beirut, Jean-Yves Le Drian, French President Emmanuel Macron’s special envoy to Lebanon, has met senior Lebanese officials and politicians close to Hezbollah.
“The United States has its ways to pressure Lebanon,” Feltman told JNS, but the leverage on Lebanon is mostly based on a pro-Western entrepreneurial business segment of the population.
“But when it comes to Hezbollah, it’s much, much harder,” he added.
An Israeli official told JNS that, “Right now, an agreement is not in reach.”
Hulata told JNS that the real question is what would come after an agreement.
“If it is made clear to the Americans and the French and everyone else that if there are violations by Hezbollah then there will be an Israeli response, then a new balance can be created,” said Haluta.
