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IAEA chief warns Iran standoff over enriched uranium cannot go on indefinitely

The IAEA has been unable to access three key sites bombed in June—Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan.

Rafael Grossi
IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi at an IAEA Board of Governors meeting in Vienna, Sept. 14, 2020. Photo by Dean Calma/IAEA via Wikimedia Commons.

Iran’s failure to fully account for its stockpile of highly enriched uranium and provide access to nuclear sites bombed by the United States and Israel in June cannot continue forever, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi said on Tuesday.

The IAEA, headquartered in Vienna, Austria, serves as the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog.

Speaking to Reuters at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Grossi said the IAEA has inspected all 13 of Iran’s declared nuclear facilities that were not struck, but has been unable to access three key sites bombed in June—Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan.

Grossi said Iran must submit a report detailing what happened at those sites and to nuclear material stored there, including an estimated 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched up to 60% purity, close to weapons-grade levels. According to IAEA benchmarks, that quantity could be further enriched to produce enough material for up to 10 nuclear bombs.

“This cannot go on forever because at some point I will have to say, ‘I don’t have any idea where this material is,’” Grossi said, adding that while he has not reached that conclusion yet, Iran must engage with the agency.

Iran maintains it is fully cooperating with the IAEA and could not immediately be reached for comment, Reuters reported.

It has been at least seven months since the IAEA last verified Iran’s stock of highly enriched uranium, despite agency guidelines calling for monthly verification. Grossi said he is exercising “diplomatic prudence,” but warned that Iran must meet its obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

“This cannot go on like this for a long time without me, unfortunately, having to declare them in non-compliance,” Grossi said, stressing that NPT members cannot selectively choose which obligations to honor.

Asked whether the issue could be resolved by spring, Grossi said that was “a reasonable timeframe.”

Grossi also cited ongoing diplomatic efforts between Iran and the United States, led by U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff, as a “real-world” factor influencing the situation. “I wish it well so that there can be an understanding without the looming threat of new military activity,” he said.

The IAEA said in November it had inspected most Iranian nuclear facilities not hit in U.S. and Israeli strikes, with further inspections continuing through late December. Inspections were paused amid mass unrest in Iran, though Iranian officials have since said the situation has stabilized.

“If this is the situation, shouldn’t we resume?” said Grossi, who added that he expects to meet Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi in the coming days or weeks.

Grossi had been assigned round-the-clock security since June following a “specific Iranian threat,” The Wall Street Journal reported in August.

Grossi was placed under the protection of Austria’s Cobra special forces unit, which is responsible for safeguarding top officials, including the country’s chancellor, and countering major threats such as terrorism.

“We can confirm that Austria provided a Cobra unit but we cannot confirm where the specific threat came from,” IAEA spokesman Fredrik Dahl said.

A person familiar with the matter told the Journal that Vienna had acted on intelligence outlining a specific threat to Grossi coming from Iranian-linked individuals. A second source said they had been told that the threat came from Iran and was being taken seriously by authorities.

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