It now seems all but certain that U.S. President Joe Biden will conclude his deal with Iran. In this scenario, Israel cannot expect any significant assistance from the United States in diminishing its dangers. Israel also cannot expect to change American policy in any substantive way until after a different president is elected. This is regardless of the results of the midterm elections.

Therefore, if concrete measures aren’t taken during this interim period, Iran will enter the so-called “zone of immunity.” It will have enough military nuclear capability to operate both directly and through its proxies under a nuclear umbrella. And Israel will face a threat environment it will be hard-pressed to handle.

This is the upshot of a must-see discussion of the current state of play in the Biden administration’s nuclear diplomacy on this week’s “Mideast News Hour,” with Caroline Glick hosting Richard Goldberg, a senior adviser at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

Goldberg was a senior official in the National Security Council during the Trump administration. Among other things, he was charged with dealing with Iran.

A deal worse than the 2015 JCPOA

Goldberg sets out the known contents of the new deal. He demonstrates how it is categorically different—and worse—than the so-called Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the nuclear deal that Barack Obama concluded with Iran in 2015.

The analyst explains the weakness of the deal’s restrictions on Iran’s nuclear operations. He stresses how the restrictions are inadequate regarding both their duration and substance. He and Glick discuss the mechanisms built into the deal which give Iran power to extort still more concessions, even after the negotiations are over, as well as how the deal minimizes congressional oversight. This includes the ability of Congress to legislate new sanctions against Iran.

Finally, they discuss where this deal leaves Iran vis-à-vis Israel, and how devastating it is for the survival of the Jewish state.

How Israel views the new agreement

The episode also addresses the ongoing policy debate between the Lapid-Gantz government and opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu, the roots of which are nearly 50 years old and go to the heart of how Israel views America’s commitment to its security.

JNS

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