Three months from now, when we look back at the first week of August for clues as to the eventual outcome of the historic and hard-fought battle between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, the former’s efforts to navigate between the pro- and anti-Israel wings of the Democratic Party in her selection of a running mate may not have been as determinant as one or more of the real-world events taking place far away from the campaign trail.
Make no mistake: The ugly attacks leveled against Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro by the Israel-haters who occupy the Democrats’ most extreme left flank represented the first serious test that Harris faced as her party’s nominee. But running mates rarely have a material impact on a presidential candidate’s fortunes. If anything, Harris’s decision to go with Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as running mate may have told us more about her personal makeup than her electoral prospects, as she demonstrated how susceptible she is to pressures from her own allies.
Shapiro is a centrist. In addition to his strong support for Israel, he has endorsed school vouchers and fracking. The fact that Shapiro veers from progressive orthodoxy on education and energy policy has not hurt him with his state’s voters. Rather, his bipartisan approach has made him America’s most popular governor, with a 60% approval rating. Given the potentially decisive role that Pennsylvania is likely to play in the presidential election, Shapiro’s standing in his home state made him a logical pick for Harris.
But the party’s most left-leaning activists went to war against him. Organized labor, environmentalists and other traditional Democrats made it clear that Shapiro would be unacceptable to them. But no voices were louder and more strident than those of the Israel-haters who have harshly criticized the Biden administration’s support for the Jewish state throughout the Gaza crisis. Harris’s first weeks on the campaign trail have inspired an immense degree of enthusiasm among party loyalists, and it’s easy to see how the vice president’s team would be worried that picking Shapiro could dampen that enthusiasm among ardent liberals. A successful general election campaign must accomplish two goals: rallying existing supporters and reaching out beyond that support base. Passing over centrist swing-state options like Shapiro and Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly, whose aggressive stand on border policy made him a nonstarter for many party regulars, marks a missed opportunity for Harris’s efforts to develop a winning coalition beyond her base.
But long after the headlines of Harris’s choice have faded, the outcome of the presidential election is much more likely to have been impacted by the week’s non-campaign happenings. The week began with an immense drop in global financial markets, triggering worldwide fears of an economic recession. Despite the enthusiasm that Harris’s candidacy has created over the last few weeks, polls show that more Americans prefer Trump on economic policy. We have also seen the growing prospect of widespread war in the Middle East. American and Israeli officials are convinced that Iran is preparing for a large-scale attack on the Jewish state and have been feverishly preparing for that eventuality. The war in Gaza, of course, has already upended American politics and transformed the Middle East. But a direct confrontation between Iran and Israel would have an even more seminal impact on both fronts.
And the decision by a federal court to find Google guilty of acting to maintain a monopoly in online search could also have a tremendous political impact. The Biden administration’s Justice Department has mounted an extremely aggressive antitrust offensive against Silicon Valley, and such a seminal decision could impact the technology sector and the immense population it serves in unpredictable ways.
So while the breathless media coverage of Harris’s selection of a running mate may have dominated the week’s political news, it’s more likely than not that her decision will have a minimal impact on the campaign’s outcome. But it does remind us of the daunting challenge that we in the Jewish community face as we confront both the rising tide of anti-Zionism and antisemitism that has emerged since Oct. 7 and its pernicious impact on American politics.
Originally published by the Jewish Journal.
