Senior security sources assess that Iran will attempt to prolong the negotiations with the United States, scheduled for this weekend in Islamabad, Pakistan’s capital, beyond the initially agreed two-week period.
They identify three key objectives of the Iranian strategy: gaining time for oil prices to stabilize, straining U.S. military resources in the Gulf, and restoring military capabilities, including retrieving damaged missile assets.
First, to gain as much time as possible, during which global oil prices may decline and markets stabilize. This, they believe, would make it more difficult for U.S. President Donald Trump to resume military action if the negotiations encounter obstacles.
The second objective is to allow time to wear down U.S. forces stationed in the Gulf region and escalate the costs of maintaining their presence.
The third objective is to use time to attempt to restore components of Iran’s military capabilities that have been damaged. Iran still has ballistic missiles stored underground, which it aims to retrieve and redeploy if needed.
In any case, security officials believe that the negotiations in Islamabad will be difficult, given the wide gaps between the parties. It is not unlikely that the talks will collapse at some stage, leading to a resumption of fighting.
Iran aims in these negotiations to reach an agreement that will solidify its status as a regional power. This includes gaining sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and turning it into a new source of revenue. Iran wants to control a waterway that was international before the war.
Israel, for its part, has not achieved its war objectives regarding Iran’s nuclear program, ballistic missiles and regional proxies. However, there is no certainty that the war has truly ended.
The ceasefire is temporary, lasting only two weeks. Although Trump is interested in ending the war, he is unlikely to concede on the issue of Iran’s possession of uranium enriched to 60%, which remains buried underground, or to agree in principle to continued Iranian uranium enrichment. The White House has officially stated this position, and it will be difficult to reverse.
The United States continues to align with Israel in its fight in Lebanon against Hezbollah. Israel will need to use this support to gain operational ground in Southern Lebanon and push the Hezbollah threat away from northern Israeli communities. The campaign in Lebanon is expected to last several months.
Security assessments note that the Iranian regime has survived the conflict so far. This is partly due to the U.S. miscalculation of the Strait of Hormuz’s importance and economic impact.
Had Washington been better prepared to prevent its closure, the outcome might have been entirely different.
Iran’s missile production and broader military industry have suffered severe damage from Israeli and American strikes. These strikes also targeted nuclear facilities.
Israel has carried out many targeted killings of senior Iranian military officials. The remaining officials are in hiding and avoid public appearances.
Iran is now attempting to support Hezbullah, which demonstrated loyalty by joining the conflict in its defense.
Tehran will likely seek various ways to make sure any ceasefire agreement also includes Lebanon. This is part of an effort to preserve the principle of “unity of arenas.”
For now, Israel’s firm stance on this issue, with full support from Trump, will likely prevail. Israel will need to intensify its strikes in Lebanon to prepare in case the American position changes in the future.
Following the ceasefire with Iran, the Israeli Air Force can now concentrate operations on Lebanon, striking Hezbollah assets and expanding its campaign across the country.
Officials report that the Israel Defense Forces has eliminated about 1,500 Hezbollah operatives since fighting began, underscoring the ongoing significance of the campaign in Lebanon.
Originally published by the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs.
