Spain, Italy and France, three of the most influential countries in Europe, will enter election campaigns over the coming year that could significantly alter the continent’s political landscape.
Each has its own urgent domestic matters, including the economy, immigration, corruption and crises of confidence. Still, the electoral drama directly touches Israel’s standing with the European Union, its main trading partner.
Various election campaigns across the continent have already shown that an obsessive campaign against Israel provides quite limited electoral benefits.
This was the case in last September’s general election in Norway, where anti-Israel parties that placed the struggle against Israel at the center failed to garner additional votes.
Polls in Spain show that the stance of parties toward Israel is not a game-changer in the voting decision, and local election results in several regions in Italy and the U.K. have also proven that the impact of a campaign based on opposition to Israel is generally limited, perhaps except for Muslim-majority areas.
Yet, Israel is expected to receive significant attention in the upcoming elections, largely due to the anti-Israel drift on the continent and the fight for every vote.
“The current situation in European public opinion is not good for Israel, and political forces are trying to exploit this,” Dr. Rémi Daniel, coordinator of the Europe Research Field at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University, explained.
“On one hand, left-wing elements are trying to attract voters through an anti-Israel campaign, and this is happening prominently in all three countries,” Daniel said. “At the same time, even the most comfortable governments are under growing pressure from parties hostile to Israel, and once they realize that public opinion is turning against Israel, they are forced to adopt a complex stance so as not to lose voters in tight elections.”
Daniel explained that even without official measurement, it is clear that if European foreign policy were determined by referendums, almost all of them would adopt an anti-Israel stance. The leaders know this and conduct themselves accordingly. According to Daniel, Israel is in a sensitive position, and a series of statements and perhaps even complex actions against it are expected, since, as the elections approach, the gap between public opinion and the stance of leaders seeking re-election will shrink.
“The most distinct example of this is Giorgia Meloni, the prime minister of Italy. She is considered one of the European leaders most supportive of Israel, but Italian public opinion is among the most problematic on the continent, and as the elections approach, she is forced to align with popular sentiment,” Daniel explained.
“Leaders like Emmanuel Macron of France and Pedro Sánchez of Spain also find an incentive to take a tougher stance toward Israel ahead of the ballot box. Although Macron does this to leave a legacy, since he cannot run again, it is clear to him as well that discourse against Israel can electorally assist whoever runs in his place in the presidential elections next year.”
The campaign currently underway could have an immediate impact on Israel’s status. The possibility of European sanctions, which seemed distant after the ceasefire with Iran, has recently become a realistic scenario once again.
European red lines
For nearly three years of war, almost no sanctions were imposed on Israel by E.U. institutions, but according to Daniel, this situation could change, “especially on issues like settler violence and the actions of specific ministers, which are perceived as crossing every red line that even a European conservative can tolerate.”
The elections in Italy are scheduled to take place toward the end of 2027, unless Meloni chooses to advance them, a possibility that has become increasingly likely in recent days. In any case, a difficult battle awaits her. Although she is expected to soon become the longest-continuously-serving prime minister in Italy since World War II, recent polls show that the path to another term will be challenging.
If Meloni continues to rule, Stefano Piazza, an Italian journalist and author, said relations with Israel will maintain their level, even if cautiously and quietly. If the left wins, significant anti-Israel steps are expected, as the leaders of the camp have already declared they will recognize a Palestinian state—and that is only the beginning.
Currently, Italy supports Israel in E.U. institutions, and together with Germany blocks the suspension of the Association Agreement (the primary treaty governing Israel-E.U. relations); a loss by Meloni would place this in jeopardy.
Currently, Meloni’s party leads the polls with around 28% of support, while the left-wing parties trail behind. However, the rise of the new far-right party of Roberto Vannacci, which steals votes from her party and her coalition partner, the League party of Matteo Salvini, could make it difficult for her to form a coalition.
Spanish scandals
In Spain, the elections are supposed to take place next summer, but the pressure on Prime Minister Sánchez is growing, as is the opposition’s expectation to advance the elections, against the backdrop of corruption scandals involving many of his close associates.
Recently, a court ordered the confiscation of the passport of his wife, Begoña Gómez, following a corruption case in which she stands accused, while concurrent proceedings are underway against his brother and his close political allies. The police even raided the party headquarters in Madrid.
The Sánchez government leads a prominent anti-Israel policy, which includes boycotts, canceling deals and promoting anti-Israel initiatives across the E.U. and the Arab world. Sánchez claims he is promoting human rights, but in Spain, they accuse him of harnessing the Israeli issue for domestic political needs.
“Sánchez makes strategic use of the conflict with Israel as a political tool to please his partners in the radical left and preserve his minority coalition, and also to distract public opinion from internal scandals. Support for a Palestinian state receives more than 80% support among the population in Spain, which gives Sánchez wide maneuverability to sharpen his tone toward Israel,” Elias Cohen, the editor of the Jewish publication Enfoque Judío, said.
Spanish public opinion is indeed hostile to Israel, but a right-wing government is expected to change the approach in Madrid. According to Cohen, this would not necessarily be a dramatic change in foreign policy, but rather a significant improvement in diplomatic dialogue and a cessation of Spanish support for international legal initiatives against Israel.
The French presidential elections will take place in April 2027. Macron will leave behind a presidential field that has never been so open. The rise of Marine Le Pen on the right and Jean-Luc Mélenchon on the left has created a real risk that the second round will be conducted between the two extremes if the political center does not consolidate a unifying candidate.
According to Laetitia Enriquez, a journalist covering French politics for the newspaper Actualité Juive, a nationalist-right government is expected to fundamentally change Paris’s attitude toward Jerusalem. Moving away from clashes, continuous criticism and the promotion of sanctions, the foreign policy, which is led by the president, would become friendly toward Israel. A centrist government might continue the current line, while a left-wing government led by Mélenchon, whom some define as “obsessive and antisemitic,” is expected to destroy relations between the countries.
“Meanwhile, until the elections, Macron will continue to score points on the Palestinian issue. The symbolic recognition of a Palestinian state and harsh statements toward Israel are expected to continue, as this is the only arena where he feels he has something to offer to the French and to history,” Enriquez said.
Daniel emphasizes that even facing the most comfortable governments, such as Meloni’s in Italy, the Popular Party in Spain, or a centrist president in France, there are red lines that current Israeli policy crosses, and its continuation will create severe problems with Europe. “Events like violence toward Christians in Jerusalem, an insufficient response to Jewish terror in Judea and Samaria, and provocative actions by specific ministers; all of these create difficulties that are hard to explain even to friendly governments,” Daniel warned.
Daniel forecasts that by late 2027, Israel could find itself facing three relatively comfortable governments. However, the path there, in the months before the elections, will not be simple, and could include pressures, statements and perhaps also sanctions, which will come precisely from governments that are not enemies.
“Meloni is the best thing that can happen to us in Italy, but even she has limits, and current Israeli policy exceeds them. Israel must return to a wise and responsible foreign policy, and that way we can restore our standing in Europe, a continent that is very important for us, even critical,” Daniel said.
Originally published by Israel Hayom.
