The slow deployment of the Lebanese Army south of the Litani River, the persistent discovery of Hezbollah weaponry and infrastructure there, and the terrorist group’s ongoing efforts to rebuild its capabilities with Iranian support are prompting Israel to consider maintaining IDF troops in strategic positions in Southern Lebanon beyond the 60-day deadline set in the ceasefire agreement.
This option has been raised in recent high-level security and political discussions.
Israel is struggling to understand the delays in the Lebanese Army’s deployment. One possibility is operational difficulties related to dispatching large, capable forces to the south. Another factor could be Hezbollah pressuring the Lebanese Army to avoid taking positions in Southern Lebanon, leaving a vacuum for Hezbollah to exploit later.
In recent weeks, Israel has repeatedly complained to international bodies about the slow pace of the Lebanese Army’s actions, warning that if Beirut does not fulfill its obligations under the agreement, the IDF may need to stay in Southern Lebanon to safeguard communities in the Galilee and Golan Heights.
Over the weekend, the IDF identified and destroyed additional Hezbollah infrastructure in Southern Lebanon, including a tactical tunnel and various weaponry. It is believed that more armaments and facilities remain, and significant efforts are being made to locate and neutralize them in the coming weeks. Simultaneously, Israel continues operations along the Lebanon-Syria border to prevent Hezbollah and its Iranian patrons from smuggling weapons into Lebanon from Syria before they fall into the hands of the new regime (the former rebels).
In line with this, the Israeli Air Force carried out several strikes last week on Hezbollah targets along the Syria-Lebanon border. Israeli officials believe Iran may seek alternative routes for smuggling advanced weapons to Hezbollah, including direct flights to Beirut International Airport, circumventing the tightened land and sea routes.
Should Iran pursue such direct smuggling methods, Israel faces complex dilemmas ranging from intercepting civilian aircraft concealing arms to resuming airstrikes in Beirut. Jerusalem would likely alert the U.S. and other nations that such smuggling violates the ceasefire agreement, potentially prompting unilateral Israeli action.
The possibility of keeping IDF troops in Southern Lebanon will be discussed with both the outgoing and incoming U.S. administrations, as the withdrawal deadline coincides with the inauguration of President Donald Trump. Such a decision could lead Hezbollah to similarly violate the agreement, reigniting hostilities, whether on a limited or extensive scale.
Discussions will continue in the coming weeks, and any decision to stay would likely involve stationing forces at only a few key locations where Israeli communities remain vulnerable due to incomplete defense infrastructure.
In parallel, the IDF is preparing to maintain its forces on the Syrian front, including in the Hermon area and east of the international border in the Golan Heights. While international observers praise Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa (aka Abu Mohammad al-Julani), Israel remains concerned about increasing violence by his forces against remnants of the Assad regime and its army.
Recent reports include mass executions, beheadings of regime opponents and public humiliation of minorities, especially Alawites. In one widely circulated video, Alawite men are seen crawling on the ground and barking, while another clip shows a former Syrian Army officer being publicly whipped.
U.S.-Israel missile interceptions
The U.S.-Israeli strategic partnership has been active regarding threats from the Houthi front in Yemen. The American THAAD missile defense system intercepted a missile fired at Israel on Thursday night, while Israel’s Arrow system intercepted another missile launched from Yemen on Saturday night. Analysts believe the Houthis will continue firing missiles in the coming days to demonstrate resilience despite last week’s Israeli strikes on their infrastructure.
Israeli and U.S. forces are expected to continue their strikes on Houthi targets, focusing on intelligence-driven efforts to kill key operatives within the group.
Meanwhile, the IDF has intensified operations in Gaza. Over the weekend, approximately 250 Palestinians were arrested at Kamal Adwan Hospital and transferred for interrogation in Israel. Concurrently, strikes targeted areas around Beit Hanun after two rockets were fired toward Jerusalem and central Israel.
Israeli officials hope this heightened pressure will corner Hamas leader Mohammed Sinwar and lead to concessions that could pave the way for a breakthrough in negotiations for the release of the 100 hostages held in Gaza.
Originally published by Israel Hayom.