The ousting of Bashar Assad’s regime at the hands of Syrian rebels and jihadists has broken the so-called “axis of resistance” that reached Lebanon from Iran via Iraq and Syria.
Such an unexpected development could never have occurred without the resounding defeat inflicted by Israel on Hezbollah. The Lebanese terrorist organization and Iranian proxy was a key Assad ally, as emerged during the Syrian civil war when Hezbollah played a key role in preventing the fall of the Assad regime.
The anti-Assad rebels who dethroned Assad are anything but a monolithic block. They include Al-Qaedist jihadists; militias linked to the Muslim Brotherhood and supported by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan; Turkmen militias; Syrian armed factions of various ideological inspirations; and the Kurds. Above all of this, the ghost of ISIS still hovers. It is no coincidence that the American forces in Syria have already bombed several ISIS positions to prevent the terrorist group from trying to take advantage of the chaotic situation.
In the meantime, the new Syrian rebel leader and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham commander, Abu Mohammad al-Julani, said “Syria will not wage a new war with Israel” because “the country is not ready for another war” and “the biggest threat is Hezbollah and the Iranian-backed Shi’ite militias in Syria.”
His comments follow Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s message that Israel seeks relations with the new Syrian regime, but “if this regime allows Iran to regain its foothold in Syria—or allows the transfer of Iranian weapons or any other weapons to Hezbollah—or attacks us, we will respond forcefully and we will exact a heavy price from it. What happened to the previous regime will happen to this regime as well.”
However, videos of jihadists who have taken over Syria and are threatening the invasion of Israel “to take back Jerusalem” have already emerged. Only time will tell the real outcome of the regime change.
This new situation—with the anti-Israel axis finding itself with broken bones and the new anti-Assad presence in Syria that currently seems reluctant to clash with the Jewish state—has generated discontent and confusion among the various pro-Palestinian factions active in Europe that are now dealing with internal conflicts.
This is especially true within branches of the Muslim Brotherhood that have always opposed Assad while still holding anti-Israel positions. The Muslim Brotherhood supported the so-called “resistance” carried out by Hezbollah, Iran and Hamas, which is the Palestinian expression of the Muslim Brotherhood against Israel. This is not a minor problem, considering that during the 2011 Syrian civil war, an internal division within Hamas had broken out between those who supported Assad and those who instead sided with the Syrian Brotherhood, to the point that the Hamas leadership had to relocate from Damascus to Doha.
In addition, there is also the issue of the pro-Palestinian far-left, a fervent ally of the former Syrian regime as it was considered the last bastion of Socialist resistance against the United States’s presence in the Middle East.
Therefore, what could the consequences of this new situation in Syria within the pro-Palestinian lead to?
Firstly, shortly after the ousting of Assad, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine released a notice condemning Israel’s incursions into Syria and the “Arab silence” on this, calling for “a clear and deterrent position against this aggression.” It is interesting that the PFLP, notoriously a supporter of the Syrian Ba’ath Party, did not address Assad’s ousting in its first official statement and focused instead on condemning the Israeli military operations in Syria.
However, the PFLP message was shared by various European pro-Palestinian groups, including the Italian far-left group Communist Resistance Support Committee. CARC, though, added a statement of its own, claiming that pro-Palestinians in Italy and beyond who rejoice over the “fall of the regime” are wrong and cause confusion. According to the Italian group, these anti-Assad positions wink at those very imperialist groups that are the target of the pro-Palestinian and anti-imperialist demonstrations, therefore creating internal divisions and harming the cause.
In general, the far-left sees the ousting of Assad’s Ba’ath regime as an imperialist attack against an ally that played a historical role as a support and rear base for the Lebanese, and, therefore, also Palestinian resistance and military and political collaboration with the Russian Federation and Iran.
Tensions have been reported between pro-Hezbollah activists and anti-Assad Islamists in the United Kingdom who have shared the streets during anti-Israel mass rallies since Oct. 7, 2023. In addition, British pro-Palestinian Communist groups strongly criticized the fall of Assad, accusing Washington, Tel Aviv and Ankara of planning the regime change. The British section of the Revolutionary Communist Party also accused the United States, Saudi Arabia and Turkey of funding and arming the Islamist groups to break the alliance between Syria, Iran and Russia.
The Spanish Communist party also spoke against Assad’s ousting in a public statement saying, that “the capture of Damascus by an Islamist terrorist group means the fall of the Syrian government and the disappearance of a multi-confessional state with a secular government, a key ally in the anti-imperialist resistance in the Middle East.”
On the other hand, the Sunni Islamists supporting the Palestinian cause are cautious regarding the position to take on Syria. The most common line seems to be to congratulate the Syrians for ousting a dictator while citing the issue as an internal Syrian affair and expressing hope for support against Israel.
In Italy, the Islamist website “Annur News,” with known pro-Turkish positions, accused Arab regimes, whether they call themselves Ba’athist, Socialist, pro-American or Sunni monarchies claiming descent from Mohammad, of doing nothing and using their armies to repress their people and secure Israel, therefore indicating that the liberation of Palestine must come through the liberation from tyrants. The website also praised Turkish military support and the political-religious direction embedded in the forces that marched on Damascus, which, according to the author, is “balanced” and “in line with the prophetic example. All of this is in line with a pro-AKP, Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party, narrative.
The fall of the Assad regime has not only created chaos on the Middle Eastern front but also risks creating internal divisions within the pro-Palestinian movement in Europe, causing tensions between the far-left, the socialist-inspired Palestinian groups and the Islamists. Whether or not the hatred towards Israel, which is the common denominator that unites these groups, will enable them to place divisions aside remains to be seen. The alternative could be an inner division or split that would harm the movement. Much depends on what will happen in Syria with the new leaders, and this is quite difficult to predict.