Iran’s recent allegations that Azerbaijan let Israel use its airspace in Jerusalem’s war against the Islamic Republic are a spurious attempt to save face following the Islamic Regime’s abject military failure, an Azerbaijani analyst said on Wednesday.
The remarks come at a time of tense relations between Baku and both Tehran and Russia due to overlapping geopolitical interests, while the burgeoning ties between the Jewish state and the predominantly Shi’ite Muslim country continue to flourish despite the regional turmoil.
“Iran is trying to scapegoat someone else for their complete military failure with these false accusations against Azerbaijan,” Farid Shafiyev, chairman of Baku’s Center of Analysis of International Relations, told JNS.
He noted that Azerbaijan’s tensions with Iran, which began five years ago and then escalated anew during the 12-day Israel-Iran war, were being fueled by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. However, he also pointed to possible Iranian efforts to calm the situation.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who visited Baku in May to mitigate strained ties, is expected to attend a central Asian economic conference in Azerbaijan on Thursday along with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and other regional leaders.
“The fact that he is coming despite the whole situation reflects a desire to defuse and overcome the crisis,” said Shafiyev.
After decades of covert relations, Azerbaijan made history two years ago by becoming the first Shi’ite country to open an embassy in Israel.
For Israel, ties with Azerbaijan—which shares a 428-mile border with Iran, a country that is home to tens of millions of Azerbaijanis—are of strategic importance, both as a conduit for reconnaissance and because Azerbaijan supplies nearly half of the Jewish state’s oil.
At the same time, Azerbaijan is a leading purchaser of Israeli military hardware, which helped Baku in its 2020 war with archrival Armenia. The victory greatly strengthened Baku regionally in a time of geopolitical change.
“Both Iran and Russia have been tremendously weakened in the Middle East,” said Shafiyev.
“Where once Iran was viewed as a fearsome, snarling beast, it is now increasingly seen as a wounded pup yelping from the sting of its injuries,” said Roman Gurevich, honorary ambassador of the Jewish Agency in Azerbaijan. “Desperate to restore its image of power and deterrence, Tehran is issuing fierce, even delusional statements targeting Baku,” he told JNS.
According to Mordechai Kedar of Bar-Ilan University, “The Israel-Iran war only served to increase Iran’s suspicion about Azerbaijan after their own vulnerability was exposed to the world. While the war may not have crossed into Azerbaijan’s borders physically, its political tremors were deeply felt.”
Baku’s strong relations with Jerusalem have long angered the Islamic Republic.
An Iranian attacked Azerbaijan’s embassy in Tehran two years ago, killing the head of security and wounding two guards, while a pro-Israel Azerbaijani lawmaker was subsequently targeted in an attempted assassination in Baku.
Two months ago, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu postponed a planned state visit to Azerbaijan due to regional security developments.
With an eye to the West, Baku has also voiced interest in formally joining the Abraham Accords, which saw Jerusalem establish peace with four Arab countries during U.S. President Donald Trump’s first term.