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Path to Lebanon ceasefire ends in Tehran

Iran’s supreme leader would have to give his stamp of approval before Hezbollah lays down arms.

Iranians step on U.S. and Israeli flags in an area decorated with Hezbollah and PLO flags during a rally outside the former U.S. embassy in Tehran on Nov. 3, 2024. Photo by Hossein Beris/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images.
Iranians step on U.S. and Israeli flags in an area decorated with Hezbollah and PLO flags during a rally outside the former U.S. embassy in Tehran on Nov. 3, 2024. Photo by Hossein Beris/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images.

Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, must grant final approval for any ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel, with cautious optimism in Jerusalem suggesting an agreement may be near, Channel 12 reported on Saturday night.

This hopeful outlook for an end to the fighting follows visits to Lebanon and Israel by U.S. presidential envoy Amos Hochstein last week.

Senior Israeli defense and political officials revealed that Hochstein, President Joe Biden’s special envoy for Lebanon, presented Beirut with a series of clear conditions that were subsequently relayed to Hezbollah, paving the way for nearly finalized agreements, contingent on Tehran’s approval.

U.S. special envoy Amos Hochstein delivers a statement after his meeting with Lebanon's Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri (not pictured) in Beirut on Aug. 14, 2024. Photo by AFP via Getty Images.
U.S. special envoy Amos Hochstein delivers a statement after his meeting with Lebanon’s Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri (not pictured) in Beirut on Aug. 14, 2024. Photo by AFP via Getty Images.

“I gave them an ultimatum—and it seems to be working,” Hochstein told Israeli officials in private conversations following his meetings in Beirut, according to Channel 12.

The report underscores that recent diplomatic efforts have aimed at minimizing situations where Israel will violate Lebanese sovereignty in response to a breach of the agreement. The goal is to empower the international monitoring mechanism as much as possible, while establishing clear criteria for when Israel can exercise its military freedom of action.

As the negotiations advance, Gen. Erik Kurilla, the head of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), met with IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi over the weekend to discuss the proposed U.S. monitoring mechanism for Lebanese army operations.

Under the developing draft agreement, the Lebanese army will be required to conduct a comprehensive operation to remove weapons from villages in Southern Lebanon, with CENTCOM forces overseeing strict enforcement of this process.

Alongside the diplomatic efforts, the Israeli Air Force has been applying significant pressure, focusing on Hezbollah’s stronghold in Dahiya, south of Beirut, while the IDF expands ground operations in Southern Lebanon.

Meanwhile, Halevi has instructed IDF General Staff directorates to continue developing and finalizing comprehensive operational plans. These plans are intended to address both the potential failure of negotiations and possible breaches of the agreement by Hezbollah—scenarios that could necessitate military action in Lebanese territory.

On Sunday, Hezbollah escalated its rocket attacks, launching one of the highest waves of fire since the war began. More than 100 rockets targeted northern and central Israel, wounding at least eight people and damaging several buildings by the afternoon.

Joshua Marks is a news editor on the Jerusalem desk at JNS.org, where he covers Jewish affairs, the Middle East and global news.
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