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Netanyahu’s re-election depends on the final outcome of ‘Operation Roaring Lion’

Can Israel’s military achievements be translated into a diplomatic arrangement that prevents Iran from rebuilding its nuclear capabilities, missile arsenal and support for international terror proxies?

Part of an Iranian ballistic missile in the desert near the city of Arad after being fired toward Israel during the war with Iran, April 16, 2026. Photo by Chaim Goldberg/Flash90.
Part of an Iranian ballistic missile in the desert near the city of Arad after being fired toward Israel during the war with Iran, April 16, 2026. Photo by Chaim Goldberg/Flash90.
Joseph Puder is the founder and director of the Interfaith Taskforce for America and Israel (ITAI).

Opposition leaders in Israel—notably, Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid—have accused the Netanyahu government of failing to meet the objectives laid down for the war with Iran. In an interview with Israeli TV Channel 12 on March 27, Bennett said, “We are not winning on any front. Not in Gaza, not in Lebanon, and in Iran, we will still see.”

He went further, accusing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of “excessive rhetoric without sufficient action on Iran.” Bennett added, “I stand behind every word in my claim that there has never been anyone who talked so much and did so little on the Iranian issue like Netanyahu.”

Polls in Israel show Bennett to be the leading contender to replace Netanyahu. Yair Lapid, leader of the Yesh Atid Party, another contender, reacted to U.S. President Donald Trump’s ceasefire announcement with Iran, stating that “Israel wasn’t even at the table when decisions were made concerning the core of our national security.”

Bennett is partially correct since Iran is still in possession of 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium, buried somewhere deep under a mountain. Both Lapid and Bennett maintain that Iran is still firing ballistic missiles at Israel and causing great damage to property in Israel. The total cost of the current war, known as “Operation Roaring Lion,” is unknown since the war is likely to continue. However, the costs are compounded by the estimated damage related to the June 2025 “Operation Rising Lion,” estimated to be $1.47 billion.

Given the fact that 2026 is an election year in Israel, the opposition parties are expected to focus on the shortcomings of the Netanyahu government they hope to replace. A potential vulnerability for Netanyahu is his having linked his political future and, perhaps, his legacy, to Trump. A recent Maariv newspaper poll found that 51% of Israelis do not trust Trump to end the war with Iran in a way that would preserve Israel’s interests. The same poll showed former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot and his Yashar Party at 13 seats, representing a gain of two seats; Bennett at 21 seats; Lapid at seven seats; and Netanyahu’s Likud Party at 26 seats. According to this poll, the opposition bloc stands at 60 seats to Netanyahu’s coalition of 50 seats. These polls, however, don’t reflect reality on the ground.

Should Trump’s America declare victory and withdraw from the war without finishing the job of eliminating the nuclear capabilities of the Islamic Republic of Iran, “Operation Epic Fury” will be considered a hollow victory. That included the seizing of the 440 kilograms of the enriched uranium; the destruction of Iran’s missile arsenal; ending its ability to support its proxies in Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq and Gaza; and opening the Straits of Hormuz. Moreover, without a genuine regime change in Tehran, Israel and perhaps the United States will have to face Iran once again. Politically, such an outcome would doom Netanyahu’s chances for re-election.

The Opposition bloc parties have, however, deliberately minimized the impressive achievements of the Israel Defense Forces, and the unprecedented joint operation against Iran of Israeli forces with the most powerful military in the world. Netanyahu’s singular focus on the Iranian existential threat to Israel, since the beginning of his political career, has not veered. He clearly deserves credit for the stunningly successful strikes against Hezbollah and Iran. And we need to remember that the war against Iran is not over yet.

Iran’s arrogance in rejecting the U.S. terms presented in Islamabad, Pakistan, left the United States with no other choice but to resume its objectives, paramount of which is the goal of opening the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping. Its extortionist demands must be countered; opening the Strait without delay is an American imperative. Trump is cognizant of the fact that he cannot afford to have American drivers and voters paying in excess of $4 a gallon of gas in an election year. Skyrocketing prices at the pump have directly impacted supermarket costs and imported goods, bringing a sharp rise in inflation.

As impressive as Israel’s military achievements have been in “Roaring Lion,” it remains to be seen if they can be translated into a diplomatic arrangement that ensures those gains and prevents Iran from rebuilding its nuclear capabilities, missile arsenal and support for global terror proxies. Whether the war evolves into a prolonged regional confrontation or moves toward negotiated de-escalation will depend on the strategic decisions of the main actors in the coming weeks. Those decisions will inevitably affect Netanyahu’s re-election.

The Trump administration shares the same objectives regarding Iran with Israel. Alongside the destruction of the country’s ballistic missiles and production facilities—and the devastating impact on the regime’s leadership and its power infrastructure—remains the critical issue of Iran still being a nuclear threat. Netanyahu promised the citizenry of Israel that the existential Iranian nuclear threat would be removed. However, the theocratic dictatorship of the ayatollahs is still a factor yet to be reconciled. Jerusalem and Washington hoped for a popular uprising by the Iranian people against their hated regime; for now, at least, those hopes have been dashed.

It’s still too early to draw conclusions from the war with Iran. And despite what seems impossible, the ultimate objective of regime change may yet occur.

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