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Saudi-Israel normalization not likely before US elections

Riyadh is also waiting for a ceasefire in Gaza before potentially signing on to the Abraham Accords.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, left, with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh on Feb. 5, 2024. Source: X.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, left, with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh on Feb. 5, 2024. Source: X.

A potential normalization agreement between Jerusalem and Riyadh won’t be signed until after the next U.S. president is decided in November’s election, Ynet reported on Friday, citing Israeli and American officials.

The Saudis are also waiting for a ceasefire in Gaza before joining the Abraham Accords.

Senior White House officials have put a positive spin on the potential for a historic deal between the two countries in recent months. The Wall Street Journal reported in June on an effort led by Secretary of State Antony Blinken to secure a major security pact between Washington and Riyadh, which would have included Saudi-Israel normalization. It would have made Saudi Arabia the only Arab state with a formal U.S. defense treaty.

According to Ynet, the Biden administration has clarified that any Saudi-Israel deal will not take place before the U.S. elections and a ceasefire in Gaza.

“The government explained that Riyadh can’t justify normalizing relations with Israel to the Arab world while a war is ongoing in the Gaza Strip,” according to Ynet.

Israel has been fighting Hamas in the coastal enclave since the terror group’s bloody invasion of the northwestern Negev on Oct. 7. Negotiators have been working on a ceasefire outline, but a senior Hamas official told AFP on Sunday that the terror group was withdrawing from talks. The comments came a day after an Israeli assassination attempt on the terror group’s military leader in Gaza, Mohammed Deif.

The senior official said Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh had told international mediators of the “decision to halt negotiations due to the occupation’s [Israel] lack of seriousness, continued policy of procrastination and obstruction, and the ongoing massacres against unarmed civilians,” AFP reported.

One of the main obstacles to a potential Saudi-Israel deal is a pathway to a Palestinian statehood. The Saudis have said that they want guarantees on progress towards achieving that goal, while Jerusalem is firmly opposed to Palestinian statehood, which they argue would threaten Israeli security by becoming an Iranian terror vassal state similar to other entities surrounding Israel.

Netanyahu in June warned that the Iranian-led axis also threatens Saudi Arabia.

“The axis doesn’t threaten only us. It threatens you. It’s on the march to conquer the Middle East. Conquer the Middle East. Conquer. That means actually conquer. Conquer Saudi Arabia, conquer the Arabian Peninsula,” he said in a video released by his office of a meeting with retired U.S. generals.

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