Senior Iranian leaders convinced themselves that an Israeli strike wouldn’t come in the middle of diplomatic talks between the Islamic Republic and the U.S., the next round of which was scheduled for June 15 in Oman.
Iran’s leaders had been preparing for more than a week for a potential Israeli strike, but due to that “one enormous miscalculation,” they dismissed warnings of an impending attack, The New York Times reported on Friday.
Iran interpreted reports of impending Israeli airstrikes as “Israeli propaganda” meant to pressure it to make more concessions during the talks, which aimed to dismantle its nuclear program, officials with ties to the Islamic Republic’s leadership told the Times.
Their flawed assumption led to complacency.
Senior military commanders stayed at home instead of going to safe houses. Brig. Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Forces, and his top staff, ignored an order not to gather in one place.
They were killed while holding an emergency meeting at a military base in the capital, the Times reported.
Other senior military leaders killed include Maj. Gen. Mohammed Bagheri, commander of Iran’s armed forces; Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami, commander-in-chief of the IRGC; and Maj. Gen. Gholamali Rashid, deputy commander in chief of the armed forces.
On Saturday, the Israel Defense Forces reported that “nine senior Iranian scientists and experts, who advanced the Iranian regime’s nuclear weapons program, were eliminated.”
The IDF’s attack, primarily aimed to destroy the nuclear capabilities of Iran, which has for years threatened to annihilate the Jewish state, struck nuclear sites and military bases.
Israel also crippled much of Iran’s air defenses.
Israeli Air Force commander Maj. Gen. Tomer Bar said on Saturday that Israel conducted precise strikes “which improved our aerial superiority and our freedom of activity in Iran. For the first time since the beginning of the war, over 1,500 km. [more than 900 miles] from Israeli territory, the IAF struck defense arrays in the area of Tehran.”
Tehran has lashed out in response, firing hundreds of surface-to-surface missiles toward non-military targets. Israel’s anti-missile system has knocked out most threats, but three Israelis have died due to ballistic missile strikes on densely populated areas.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, moved to an undisclosed location, declared on Friday that Israel had doomed itself.
“With this crime, the Zionist regime sealed for itself a bitter and painful destiny and will definitely see that [destiny] brought upon it,” Khamenei vowed, according to Tehran’s official IRNA news agency.
Failures of intelligence and defense
Iranian officials vented their frustration in private text messages viewed by the Times. “Where is our air defense?” said one. “How can Israel come and attack anything it wants, kill our top commanders, and we are incapable of stopping it?”
They questioned the failures of intelligence and defense that prevented Iran from predicting the coming attacks.
“Israel’s attack completely caught the leadership by surprise, especially the killing of the top military figures and nuclear scientists. It also exposed our lack of proper air defense and their ability to bombard our critical sites and military bases with no resistance,” Hamid Hosseini, of Iran’s Chamber of Commerce’s energy committee, told the newspaper.
On Friday morning, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council struggled with how to respond. Some voiced concerns about risking American involvement. “One official said in the meeting that if Israel responded by attacking Iran’s infrastructure or water and energy plants, it could lead to protests or riots,” the Times reported.
Khamenei eventually ordered an attack far smaller than envisioned. The initial idea was to fire up to 1,000 missiles at Israel, but Israeli strikes on missile bases precluded the possibility of quickly bringing up enough projectiles from storage to their launchpads, the Times reported.
Iran ultimately fired some 100 missiles in its first wave.
Meanwhile, Israelis attacks continue. Fatemeh Hassani, a Tehran resident, told the Times that she heard drones overhead, nonstop explosions, and return fire from air defenses in the eastern and central parts of the capital.