Senior American officials believe that Iran is interested in renewing negotiations over a new nuclear agreement, despite recent Israeli and American strikes on its nuclear facilities.
This interest stems primarily from severe economic pressures and a desire to lift the crippling Western sanctions imposed on the country.
U.S. policy aims to secure an Iranian commitment not to resume uranium enrichment and to remove its enriched uranium stockpile from the country as part of a future political deal.
The Trump administration seeks to portray any post-war agreement as an “unconditional Iranian surrender.
However, Iranian authorities, even after the latest strike on their nuclear infrastructure, emphasize their intention to continue enrichment activities within Iran’s borders.
They fear that any concession at this stage would be seen as a sign of weakness, encouraging the United States and Israel to issue further demands such as restrictions on Iran’s ballistic missile program.
Following Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s recent visit to Washington and his meetings with top American officials, it appears that discussions also covered the possibility of a renewed strike on Iran should negotiations fail once again.
Senior diplomatic sources note that Donald Trump’s return to the White House has dramatically shifted the regional balance.
Until recently, Iran operated with near impunity regarding its nuclear and missile programs.
Today, however, the regime is in crisis. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei now feels more vulnerable than ever: Iran has lost its strategic air defense systems, Israeli fighter jets dominated its skies and the country is paying a heavy price for its ambition to dominate the Middle East.
The rules of the game have changed and they are about to shift even further.
According to security officials, Israel is preparing to apply its “War Between the Wars” (MABAM) doctrine directly to Iran.
This strategy entails targeted strikes on Iranian soil against nuclear and ballistic missile assets whenever Iran attempts to restore damaged infrastructure.
On July 9, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz declared at a National Security College graduation ceremony: “Our challenge is clear: to ensure that Iran cannot regain its ability to threaten our citizens. We must develop an enforcement plan to prevent Iran from rebuilding the capabilities it had prior to the operation.”
Katz traveled to Washington last week to continue discussions with American counterparts on security coordination concerning Iran.
Just the first round
Though Israel decisively won the recent 12-day war with Iran, that conflict appears to have been just the first round.
The war severely damaged Iran’s national pride and ignited a thirst for revenge. According to defense sources, Iran is already working to rebuild its air defense network, which was obliterated by the Israeli Air Force.
Tehran has launched urgent diplomatic efforts with several countries to accelerate this process.
The next phase of Iran’s strategy is likely to be the resumption of ballistic missile production, followed by a return to uranium enrichment—either under a new agreement with the United States or unilaterally.
This emerging Iranian roadmap demands that the United States and Israel recalibrate their approach, increasing bilateral coordination.
This topic was also central to Netanyahu’s meetings in Washington with Trump and other senior officials. Israeli and American intelligence services are closely monitoring Iran’s reconstruction efforts to thwart any attempt to reverse the consequences of the recent attacks.
A renewed escalation is a real possibility, as both the United States and Israel believe that any relaxation in military or political pressure on Iran will be interpreted as weakness. In line with this view, the United States imposed additional sanctions on Iran on July 9.
Israel advocates a hawkish stance, urging the continuation of military pressure on Iran to establish a lasting deterrent.
The goal is to prevent Tehran from resuming uranium enrichment at secret facilities not monitored by the International Atomic Energy Agency and to halt ballistic missile production.
Israeli assessments suggest that as long as Khamenei remains in power, the struggle with Iran will be protracted and cannot be resolved with a single decisive blow.
Hence, Israel favors implementing its MABAM strategy utilizing a series of airstrikes or covert Mossad operations to delay or disrupt Iranian nuclear and missile ambitions without triggering a full-scale war. However, this strategy is not without risks. Applying the “mowing the grass” doctrine to Iran could result in cycles of mutual escalation.
The developing Israeli strategy is to systematically degrade Iran’s ability to develop nuclear weapons over the long term. The goal is to force Tehran to reconsider the feasibility and cost of reviving its nuclear program.
Israeli defense doctrine now rests on the belief that it will not achieve its minimal objectives without a bold and offensive posture designed to deter Tehran’s continued pursuit of nuclear and missile capabilities.
From Iran’s perspective, ending the war while preserving political and social cohesion, and maintaining critical infrastructure for its long-term strategic programs—alongside Israel’s failure to subdue or constrain its actions—means Iran was not defeated.
Yet, Israeli and American intelligence assessments indicate that Iran remains deeply vulnerable. Senior diplomatic sources believe that Israel has entered an era of slow attrition of Iran’s military capabilities, not one of swift resolution.
Iran is pursuing a multi-dimensional strategy: It is rearming, preserving ambiguity, remaining committed to its long-term goals and applying a doctrine of “cumulative deterrence.”
Therefore, Israel must translate its military gains into a clear and resolute policy without hesitation. Otherwise, Iran may recover and seek to establish new power equations, possibly in collaboration with China and even Russia.
Originally published by the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs.
