As U.S. and Israeli strikes hit targets across Iran, two veteran analysts said Monday that the Islamic Republic may be entering a period of internal turmoil that could threaten the regime’s survival, but cautioned that Washington’s ultimate goals remain unclear.
Speaking during a March 2 webinar hosted by the Jewish Institute for National Security of America and moderated by Blaise Misztal, JINSA vice president for policy, Elliott Abrams, former U.S. special representative for Iran, and Mehdi Parpanchi, executive editor of Iran International, assessed whether the war could trigger the regime’s collapse.”
Abrams said the Trump administration’s posture on regime change has appeared inconsistent.
“I think the president has gone hot and cold on this,” Abrams said, arguing that formally pursuing regime change would require U.S. policymakers to “stay with it right until the end.”
He warned against what he described as a potential “Venezuela-type outcome,” in which elements of the Iranian leadership cut a deal to preserve power. Mixed messaging from Washington, he added, could send contradictory signals to the Iranian public.
Parpanchi pushed back on the long-standing assumption that foreign military action would automatically trigger a nationalist rally-around-the-flag effect inside Iran.
“For the Iranians, the majority of Iranians, that is not the case,” he said. “They do not see the Islamic Republic as representing them. They are seeing it as an occupying force.”
Following the reported death of Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was reportedly killed in a joint U.S.-Israeli airstrike on Feb. 28, as well as the subsequent deaths of dozens of senior Iranian officials, Parpanchi described a system in disarray.
“If you really ask me who is in charge, I would say no one,” he said. “The regime cannot continue that long.”
Parpanchi argued that any remaining regime figures who attempt to trade away Iran’s nuclear program to secure relief from pressure could face backlash from their own base, potentially accelerating the system’s unraveling.
Both analysts stated that the decisive factor may be whether large-scale protests resume across Iran, but emphasized that the situation inside Iran remains fluid and highly uncertain.
“If we have encouraged this, we have a responsibility not to abandon the people who come out,” Abrams said, referring to the possibility of renewed mass demonstrations and a harsh regime crackdown.
