With the pro-Israel government of Viktor Orbán voted out in Hungary this week, a crucial buffer preventing the majority of European Union members seeking sanctions on Jerusalem is being erased.
The E.U.-Israel Association Agreement, which governs trade and diplomatic relations between Jerusalem and the 27-member E.U., appears to be hanging by a thread, amid efforts to suspend it in whole, or in significant part.
During a visit to Washington, D.C., this week, Dubravka Šuica, the European commissioner for the Mediterranean, told JNS that “Israel is our very good partner and partner in trade, in science, in technology, and we have very good relations in education.
At the same time, “we have some issues,” she said, in an understatement.
There are other countries, Šuica said, which may also stand in the way of E.U. consensus in suspending the association agreement. While she didn’t mention them by name, Germany and the Czech Republic have pushed back on such a move, alongside Hungary, whose incoming prime minister said he will look at each Israel-related issue on its merits, but could no longer pledge a reflexive Hungarian veto.
“Let’s see how the situation will evolve. I don’t say it’s a threat, but this is our tool which we have at the moment,” Šuica said of the suspension possibility.
She noted that the Israeli political situation “is also complex, because you are approaching elections,” emphasizing that “we don’t want to act politically. We act more according to our European rules, according to what we committed to European citizens.”
The European Commission is the E.U.'s main executive body, while the European Parliament, together with the Council of the European Union, adopts legislation proposed by the commission.
Šuica told JNS there is “always pressure” from the European Parliament, “be it in favor of Israel, be it against Israel. So we are trying to find the midway. But you also need cooperation from the Israeli side.”
The Croatian politician’s last visit to Washington was controversial, as she attended the inaugural Board of Peace meeting in February as an observer on behalf of the European Commission, drawing criticism from some E.U. states that oppose the Donald Trump-led board and claim Šuica had no mandate to appear.
“We will decide on future engagement on a case-by-case situation,” Šuica told JNS of the E.U.’s involvement with the Board of Peace going forward. “We don’t appreciate all the rules of procedure of the board itself, but it is good that we are doing something for the [Gaza] ceasefire and for the peace in the Middle East.”
While in Washington this week, Šuica attended a high-level roundtable on the Strip’s early recovery.
From payer to player?
The E.U. wants to move from a role of “payers to one of players,” Šuica said, as she prepares to present this Friday her action plan to implement the Pact for the Mediterranean, which was developed last year and lays out a future for cooperation between the E.U. and what it calls its “southern neighborhood,” which includes the Middle East.
The E.U. is the largest funder of the Palestinian Authority.
“They wouldn’t have survived without our money, without our help,” Šuica said. “We think that if we invest in the Palestinian Authority, we are, in fact, also helping Israel in order to have security in their vicinity.”
That’s a statement that many officials in Jerusalem would dispute.
But, “it’s important to have partnerships with all the countries” in the region, Šuica said, noting bilateral agreements that are in the works with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Morocco, along with completed deals with Jordan, Egypt and Tunisia.
Lebanon was offered a comprehensive partnership agreement within the framework of the Pact for the Mediterranean, Šuica said, though the current situation in the country is holding that up. She met this week with Amer Bisat, Lebanon’s minister of economy and trade.
The E.U. has already committed around $1.18 billion to Lebanon, “but their institutions don’t have absorption capacity,” Šuica said, with the E.U. offering technical assistance instead.
“I’m looking forward to the next round of negotiations” between Israel and Lebanon “to find the way how to, in the end, ban Hezbollah. They started this bombing,” she said.
She acknowledged that peace cannot truly move forward unless both Hezbollah and Hamas are disarmed, which will be made easier if E.U. funds don’t wind up in their hands. Still, Brussels won’t take an active role militarily.
“Someone has to disarm Hamas. It’s not us in Europe. We are helping with what we can do, but military intervention is up to someone else,” Šuica said, adding that negotiations through the Board of Peace are another possibility.
President Trump has aired his frustrations with European allies who have refused to join the United States in dislodging Iran’s blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. Šuica said Europe can ride out the current chaos for a while.
“We don’t have oil and fuel from the Persian Gulf. We have energy from the United States, from Norway, from Algeria. But at the same time, little by little, it will spill over, not only to Europe, not only to the region, but also to the whole world,” she said, though she offered no sign that Europe may become involved militarily.
Šuica also met this week with Ted Deutch, CEO of the American Jewish Committee.
“The E.U. is strongly committed to combating antisemitism and supporting Jewish life, including through our continued cooperation with Yad Vashem” and the AJC, Šuica posted.
