Despite intelligence indicating that Iran’s supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, elected in place of his slain father Ali Khamenei, is alive, U.S. and Israeli intelligence agencies are working to assess his location and condition, Axios reported, citing senior U.S. and Israeli officials.
The mystery surrounding Khamenei deepened after he failed to appear for a Nowruz New Year speech on Friday, breaking with a tradition his father observed every year. Instead, he issued only a written message on Telegram.
“We expected to see Mojtaba in some form,” a U.S. official said. “He didn’t use the opportunity or the tradition. That is a major red flag.”
This was “more than strange,” the official added. “We don’t think the Iranians would go through all this trouble to choose a dead man as supreme leader, but at the same time, we have no proof he is holding the reins.”
According to the report, the CIA is trying to verify whether images published on Mojtaba’s Telegram channel for Nowruz are recent. His absence stands out, the site noted, especially as Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian released a video for the holiday.
Rumors of death
The uncertainty over Mojtaba’s health was also discussed at a U.S. House Intelligence Committee hearing on Thursday. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard said Mojtaba was “very seriously injured” in an Israeli strike and that decision-making within Iran’s leadership “is not clear.” In addition to his father, the strike reportedly killed his wife, Zahra Haddad Adel, his son and his mother.
Western reports paint a complex picture. Israeli officials told The New York Times he had sustained leg injuries and was staying in a secure location with limited communications. CNN reported a fractured foot, trauma around his left eye and facial cuts.
At the same time, the Kuwaiti newspaper Al Jarida reported on March 15 that Khamenei had been secretly flown to Moscow on a Russian military aircraft for surgery, after Russian President Vladimir Putin offered treatment to Pezeshkian in a phone call. The Kremlin declined to comment, and Iran’s ambassador to Moscow later denied the report.
More extreme, unverified claims have circulated in recent days on Iranian opposition social media channels.
Regime of the Revolutionary Guards
“We have no evidence he is actually the one giving orders,” an Israeli official told Axios. In the apparent leadership vacuum following a series of assassinations, led by that of the supreme leader, National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani and the military command echelon, the prevailing assessment is that political decision-making has shifted to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which also backed Mojtaba’s selection.
Gabbard confirmed at the hearing that Mojtaba is close to hard-line commanders in the IRGC, but stressed that while the decision-making mechanism “is not clear,” the Iranian regime “remains largely intact, though significantly damaged.”
The question of who makes decisions in Iran is now central. Although Pezeshkian ostensibly holds broad powers, it is clear he is not directing the military campaign. This was underscored by the public humiliation he faced when he apologized to Gulf states over Iranian attacks, only for the strikes to continue immediately afterward.
Within the military echelon, the figure emerging as most senior is the new commander of the IRGC, Ahmad Vahidi, a former Quds Force commander and defense minister.
According to Western reports, the IRGC were behind Mojtaba’s appointment, pressuring anyone who sought to choose a different candidate who might pursue negotiations with the United States or reforms to calm protesters. The reports say the Guards forced the decision by exerting pressure on members of the Assembly of Experts, which had to convene in secret after its offices in Qom were bombed. The announcement was delayed for many hours due to internal opposition, and some members were not invited at all.
Mojtaba is believed to have cultivated deep ties over the years with IRGC commanders, particularly with mid-level officers who stepped into the roles of senior figures killed in the war.
Originally published by Israel Hayom.
