Saudi Arabia is in trouble. Over the past month, it has proven to be a much weaker power than the Yemen-based terror group the Houthis. Following a lightning offensive, the Houthis seized control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and are now actively blockading Saudi shipping routes.
In other words, the Iran-influenced Houthis have captured the entire Red Sea coastline of Yemen. That development has led the Saudis to reroute their oil exports, fundamentally altering the geostrategic situation.
The Houthis also captured the Yemeni strategic coastal port of Mokha, the coastal town of Dhubab and Perim Island. This means that the Houthis are a mere 12 miles from the African coast of Djibouti and Eritrea, which gives them direct leverage over the Bab el-Mandeb.
The effect has been severe. Because of the war against Iran, Riyadh effectively lost control of its main oil shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz. Now its fallback route through the Red Sea is being choked off. Consequently, they must rely solely on the Suez Canal, alongside naval escorts and covert shipping operations.
This is not only worrying, but also ironic, because on Aug. 7, Saudi Arabia signed the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. Like the NATO defense pact, it declares that an attack on one party is an attack on all. Thus far, however, neither Turkey nor Pakistan has acted against the Houthis.
On Sept. 24, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan met with Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar and Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly. They considered ways to assist Saudi Arabia militarily, condemned the Houthi attacks and tried to work out some framework to respond.
This was the first time their defense clause was invoked and seriously considered since the pact was signed. However, so far, it has amounted to mere rhetoric.
On Aug. 23, the Lebanese media outlet Al Mayadeen quoted Iranian source Mehdi Rahimi as saying that Iran had been invited to join the Mecca agreement. He presented this as though it was some sort of Iranian triumph. However, it was never confirmed by the Saudis, the Pakistanis, the Turks or the Iranian Foreign Ministry. Tehran later walked back the statement, but the Iranians clearly remain eager to join a regional security pact.
With NATO’s second-largest army, a well-developed defense industry and considerable strategic depth, Turkey significantly strengthens the Mecca agreement and bolsters its military-industrial capabilities. However, Turkey’s NATO membership raises significant questions about potential conflicts with its role in the Mecca agreement.
Turkey often robustly trades with Iran and does not want internecine rivalry in the area. This is likely why, thus far, it has only offered the Saudis rhetorical support, not weapons or military assistance.
Pakistan has possessed nuclear weapons since 1998 and is estimated to have about 170 warheads—roughly the same number as India. Its membership in the Mecca agreement could therefore provide Saudi Arabia and Turkey with some form of nuclear deterrence. Pakistan has also considered sharing nuclear expertise with Saudi Arabia.
For Israel, after the fall of Syria’s longtime dictator Bashar Assad, new rivalries have emerged. Erdoğan, who sponsored the forces that toppled Assad, has added to international anti-Israel rhetoric by making the gravest accusations against Israel and its Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa has often looked toward Erdoğan as a strong role model, and Turkey has expanded its military presence in Syria.
That is why both the former prime minister of Israel Naftali Bennett and Netanyahu have warned not only about the Shi’ite axis between Iran and the Houthis, but a rapidly expanding Sunni axis. Bennett has said that there could be a Sunni “choke ring” around Israel stretching through Syria to Gaza. Many in Israel’s government have warned that the Sunni axis could include Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar, Pakistan and Syria.
