The Republican Jewish Coalition published a report on Thursday examining where Jewish voters in the Nov. 5 election swung for President-elect Donald Trump that suggests his strongest gains were among “those who live the most Jewish lives and reside in the most Jewish communities.”
The analysis from WPA Intelligence, a conservative political consultancy and analytics firm, looked at available exit polling, city and county data and precinct data. It concluded that there is a growing political gap between “disengaged and secular people of Jewish ancestry,” who largely voted for Vice President Kamala Harris, and “those actively engaged with the Jewish religion” who broke for Trump.
“Looking at Jewish neighborhoods and towns, the trends are stark and unmistakable,” WPAI stated. “Because Judaism is in some ways a communal religion and observant Judaism requires localized infrastructure, Jews who live in Jewish areas tend to be more religious and engaged. And in these neighborhoods, we see large shifts towards Trump.”
“The trend is apparent from Trump’s near-unanimous support among Chassidic and Yeshivish Jews; to his rapid consolidation of the Modern Orthodox vote; to incremental gains even in more liberal Jewish areas such as Oak Park and Upper Manhattan,” the firm added. “So, too, is it diverse ethnically and geographically, occurring coast to coast and overrepresenting Persian and ex-Soviet Jewish communities.”
The RJC/WPAI report is the latest set of data points in the dispute between Republican and Democratic Jewish groups over whether Trump won over a large share of Jewish voters and where he might have done so.
That question might turn in large part on who is counted as Jewish, with pollsters reaching dramatically different conclusions depending on how Jewish voters are screened.
According to a survey commissioned by J Street, Trump won only 26% of the Jewish vote nationally and 23% of the Jewish vote in the swing state of Pennsylvania, a result that would make Jewish voters one of the most reliable demographics for Democrats in an election in which nearly every other socioeconomic subgroup in the United States swung towards Trump.
But 24% of J Street’s respondents identified as “not Jewish by religion,” weighting heavily in favor of Harris voters.
A poll by the Orthodox Union’s Teach Coalition that used a different method for identifying Jewish voters found radically different results in Pennsylvania, with Harris only winning the state 48%-41%.
The RJC/WPAI analysis concluded that some of the most dramatic swings in the Jewish vote towards Trump happened in New York. It also identified red shifts in heavily Jewish areas of New Jersey, Michigan and California.
“Though Jews still often live in blue areas, their neighborhoods and communities are increasingly a major share of the red islands in blue seas,” MPAI stated. “In this election, we have seen how Jewish values vote, and increasingly, they vote red.”
