Over the past several months, the Katz Jerusalem Center for Applied Policy (JCAP) has conducted an in-depth analysis of a 758-page document published by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan outlining his long-term strategy for expanding Ankara’s influence in Israel, particularly in Jerusalem.
On Monday evening, at the opening of its new headquarters in Jerusalem, JCAP unveiled the findings of its research, concluding that the doctrine lays out a phased plan to conquer Jerusalem and warning that Erdoğan’s ambitions pose a significant threat to Israel, the broader Middle East and the free world.
The document, an official publication of the Turkish Presidency’s Directorate of Communications titled “Filistin Davaniz–Our Palestinian Cause,” covers events from Oct. 7, 2023, to Apr. 20, 2024. According to JCAP, it is not a neutral account but “a blueprint for what Turkey wants remembered and read closely, what it plans to pursue.”
The publication appeared more than two years ago but received little attention, Avi Zimmerman, JCAP’s director of U.S. relations, said.
Published by Erdoğan’s communications directorate, “it is basically an attempt to indoctrinate Turkish public perception vis-à-vis Israel with the attempt to delegitimize, dehumanize and demonize the Jewish state and, to some extent, the Jewish people as a whole,” Zimmerman said.
He also warned of “the next danger: F-35s for Turkey.”
Israeli Minister of Diaspora Affairs and Combating Antisemitism Amichai Chikli was the guest speaker. Diplomats, former security officials and other dignitaries attended the event, along with members of JCAP’s international board.
Jerusalem Deputy Mayor Adir Schwartz presented Chikli with an award recognizing his contribution not only to the State of Israel but also to defending the sovereignty of the capital, where the minister was born and raised.
Speakers throughout the evening warned of what they described as Turkey’s strategy to gain control of Jerusalem and the broader threat it poses to Israel, the region and the free world.
“We’ve been following very closely the threat that has been coming from Turkey, and unlike what Erdoğan says, we have zero motivation to be at war with Turkey,” Chikli told the audience.
“We need to pay attention to our enemies and listen very carefully to what they are saying … to assume that they are very serious about their intentions.
“Therefore, we must prepare for the worst scenario, which means we must prepare for war,” he said. “That is the reality, unfortunately.”
Another threat is Syria, because its leader “Ahmed al-Sharaa’s military is Erdoğan’s military. Al-Sharaa’s ideology is Erdoğan’s ideology. Erdoğan and al-Sharaa’s ideology is Al Qaeda and ISIS ideology,” the minister said, citing what he described as their barbaric treatment of non-Muslim minorities in the region.
“And I think that the main challenge we have is to make sure that the heads of NATO and the heads of the United States understand that the fact that they are wearing suits doesn’t mean that they can be your partner and your friend. They cannot.
“It is a dramatic mistake of both NATO and the U.S. to rely on Turkey and to trust Erdoğan.
“Erdoğan is an enemy of America. He’s an enemy of NATO, an enemy of Western civilization. He’s a fanatic Islamist dictator, a combination of Hitler and Sinwar—a neo-Ottoman imperialist vision with the spirit of Hamas.”
Turkish affairs research associate Turku Avci, 27, who was born and raised in Turkey in a secular Muslim family, moved to Israel in 2021 to study at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. After the Hamas massacre on Oct. 7, 2023, she began publicly advocating for Israel and subsequently became the subject of an arrest warrant in Turkey for the “crime” of insulting Erdoğan.
“If Hamas could write a book, that would be the book,” she said of the publication. “The history of the conflict was literally told in Hamas’s words. Israel was shown as a criminal state; the Israeli people were dehumanized.”
According to Avci, the title—"Our Palestinian Cause"—is itself revealing.
“It’s an agenda to make Turkish society believe this case is also our case,” she said. “Most Turkish people, even though they support Palestine, don’t think it’s our case, and they don’t think they should put boots on the ground. They don’t want to sacrifice our soldiers for another country’s issues.”
Erdoğan also plans “to turn the Turkish army into an Islamic army because they believe we cannot fight with Israel with a secular army,” she said. “This document is preparing Turkish society for Erdoğan’s agenda.”
“All we see is Hamas propaganda. Most of the journalists live in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv,” and they are promoting an intifada, she added. “I think soon it’s going to become even more dangerous than Al Jazeera because TRT and the Turkish embassy are still in Jerusalem.”
Turkish Jews living in Israel are afraid to speak publicly because they fear for relatives still in Turkey, she added.
‘Erdoğan must conquer something’
“I’m not familiar with the mental or psychological circumstances of Erdoğan, but I’m curious to know whether his non-Turkish origin may be a part of it,” said Ran Ichay, JCAP’s director of diplomacy and research.
“His family is Georgian, which means that about 200 years ago, they were Christians. So, I don’t know if it affects his behavior. I believe he’s a true Muslim now; he’s a zealot, quite radical, and it may be that his background drives him to do things that others wouldn’t do.”
More important, Ichay said, is Erdoğan’s ambition to restore Ottoman influence, with Jerusalem becoming part of a new Ottoman Empire and Erdoğan serving as the new caliph.
His obstacle, Ichay added, is that “he’s not a descendant of the prophet Mohammed, and to be a khalif, you must be.”
Turkey has developed a phased plan to enter Jerusalem as the patron of the holy sites, he said, giving Erdoğan “the status he has been looking for so many years, to become the leader of the Muslim world.”
Dr. Shmuel Katz, chairman of JCAP, emphasized the importance of education in countering Islamist propaganda. He cited a Fox News interview in which a guest attacked Israel while the anchor lacked the facts needed to challenge the claims.
“Information is critical because people often do not know the truth,” Katz said. He urged attendees to share accurate information and serve as ambassadors, stressing that the issue is not only Israeli or Jewish but concerns the entire free world.
“The challenges and threats mentioned during the evening are existential,” said Chaim Silberstein, JCAP’s founder and chairman. “The project on Turkey is not a challenge that will disappear tomorrow. But there are things that we can do to mitigate it.”
Despite those challenges, he said, “JCAP deals with and works toward strengthening Jerusalem’s international standing.”
Envoys representing Guatemala, Kosovo, Honduras and Panama also addressed the gathering, expressing their appreciation for Israel and sharing their favorite places in Jerusalem.
Schwartz praised JCAP for its “very, very important work for the city.”
“The future of Jerusalem is very promising,” he said. “Economy is the key. What JCAP brings to the table in that regard is seeing the whole picture and understanding that the international status of Jerusalem is intertwined with this economic future.”
