The Iranian people remember 2009, when, during massive demonstrations in Tehran and elsewhere in the country, the masses cried out, referring to the regime of the ayatollahs: “Obama, are you with us or with them?”
Then-President Barack Obama ignored the demonstrators and essentially backed the repressive theocratic regime. Today, in the midst of the current demonstrations, the current president is much more sympathetic to the Iranian demonstrators than Obama was. While U.S President Donald Trump’s verbal support is comforting to the Iranian demonstrators, it is not enough.
A kinetic operation by the United States or Israel might help bring down the regime, especially if Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Republic leadership are eliminated. While Iranians generally resent foreign intervention, many cheered the Israeli attack on Iran last June.
The majority of Iranians want change. Regrettably, the lack of an alternative, visible and trusted leadership is not in evidence. The opposition forces who seek to bring down the current regime are split and diffused. Political opposition in the diaspora is split, and domestic opposition is largely in prison and harshly repressed. The only effective way to bring down the regime would be to separate the security services and have the deserters join the opposition. Such a situation would provide the defenseless demonstrators with potentially armed men. There is also a remote possibility that elements within the Islamic Republic might seek change.
Among the more recognizable opposition leaders is Reza Pahlavi, the crown prince, son of the deposed former Shah, who resides in the United States. Although many Iranians look with fondness on the life before the 1979 Islamic Revolution—when Iranian society was more open, and there were closer ties with the Western world, cultural diversity and economic prosperity—not all segments of the population enjoyed such benefits. Unfortunately, Reza Pahlavi has failed to build an effective political organization and has quarreled with other opposition groups, thus splitting the opposition (to the delight of the current regime). Still, Pahlavi has the support of many Western governments, especially Israel and America, even though the Trump administration has not endorsed Pahlavi.
Demonstrations in Iran are enjoying widespread public support. The country’s currency has crashed, unemployment is widespread, and a harsh drought has led the regime to ration water. The ayatollahs have not taken responsibility for the dire economic conditions in the country, and there is little likelihood that conditions will improve. The regime is accused of corruption, mismanagement and wasting money on funding proxies in Lebanon, Gaza and Sana’a, instead of investing in strategies that would benefit the Iranians. For them, the situation evokes a sense of déjà vu. They recall previous demonstrations and are concerned that what they are witnessing might not change the reality any more than it has in the past. And again, a serious alternative political leadership that might be able to assume power has not yet emerged.
Let’s not forget minorities in Iran, despite a theocratic regime. The Kurds in Western Iran account for approximately 10% of the population, and their suffering under the current regime has fostered several Kurdish militias that have been fighting it. The Kurds have requested American support for many years; none has been rendered. The Baluchis, in southeastern Iran, are also in a state of rebellion against the regime, as are the Arabs of Khuzestan in southwestern Iran.
Khamenei seems to be sizing up and analyzing the protests, even showing relative sympathy in light of the dire economic situation. Will he launch a crackdown? That may depend on whether some Iranian military elements defect and help the protesters. Should Iranian military elements join them, it would constitute a first time since 1979. Recent comments by Trump that he would intervene if Iran started cracking down on the rally-goers reportedly have some within the regime taking his warning seriously after U.S. forces abducted Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro on Jan. 3.
We are still in a wait-and-see period; the regime’s fall is not imminent. It may indeed be hated, but without a unifying leader of the opposition and consequential defection from the regime’s security services, the demonstrations may be halted. And it is questionable whether Trump would use sufficient and sustained American power in the event of a crackdown.
It makes the coming days critical: Either the protests will increase in size, focus and leadership—and gain some kind of military support—or the regime will start reacting with force, causing the mobs to peter out. For now, it’s a power play that is holding the world’s attention.
